Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher secured his party's nomination with roughly 78 percent of the primary vote in May 2026, facing a Democratic nominee in Kaylee Peterson and an independent candidate. Idaho's 1st district encompasses the Panhandle and western Boise suburbs, where Republican candidates have routinely captured more than 70 percent of the general-election vote in recent cycles. These structural factors, combined with limited Democratic infrastructure and fundraising in the district, underpin trader pricing that assigns the Republican nominee a commanding lead. Potential shifts remain possible from late-cycle national economic swings, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high independent turnout, though such developments have historically produced only modest movement in this safely Republican seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedID-01 House Election Winner
ID-01 House Election Winner
$39,530 Vol.
$39,530 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
4%
$39,530 Vol.
$39,530 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$23,921 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$15,610 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher secured his party's nomination with roughly 78 percent of the primary vote in May 2026, facing a Democratic nominee in Kaylee Peterson and an independent candidate. Idaho's 1st district encompasses the Panhandle and western Boise suburbs, where Republican candidates have routinely captured more than 70 percent of the general-election vote in recent cycles. These structural factors, combined with limited Democratic infrastructure and fundraising in the district, underpin trader pricing that assigns the Republican nominee a commanding lead. Potential shifts remain possible from late-cycle national economic swings, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high independent turnout, though such developments have historically produced only modest movement in this safely Republican seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$39,530End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher secured his party's nomination with roughly 78 percent of the primary vote in May 2026, facing a Democratic nominee in Kaylee Peterson and an independent candidate. Idaho's 1st district encompasses the Panhandle and western Boise suburbs, where Republican candidates have routinely captured more than 70 percent of the general-election vote in recent cycles. These structural factors, combined with limited Democratic infrastructure and fundraising in the district, underpin trader pricing that assigns the Republican nominee a commanding lead. Potential shifts remain possible from late-cycle national economic swings, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high independent turnout, though such developments have historically produced only modest movement in this safely Republican seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,530End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher secured his party's nomination with roughly 78 percent of the primary vote in May 2026, facing a Democratic nominee in Kaylee Peterson and an independent candidate. Idaho's 1st district encompasses the Panhandle and western Boise suburbs, where Republican candidates have routinely captured more than 70 percent of the general-election vote in recent cycles. These structural factors, combined with limited Democratic infrastructure and fundraising in the district, underpin trader pricing that assigns the Republican nominee a commanding lead. Potential shifts remain possible from late-cycle national economic swings, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high independent turnout, though such developments have historically produced only modest movement in this safely Republican seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions