**Forecast consensus from NWS and other models centers the overnight low for Denver on August 23 around the lower-to-mid 60s, with most guidance pointing to 64–65°F as the most probable outcome.** This aligns with the market’s leading bin at 38% implied probability, ahead of 66–67°F (33.5%) and 68–69°F (27%). Key drivers include partly cloudy skies that permit moderate radiational cooling after daytime highs near 92–93°F, light variable winds (generally under 10 mph), and dew points in the low-to-mid 50s that limit further temperature drops. Recent climatology shows typical late-August lows in the 57–64°F range, and current conditions lack strong cold-air advection or clear, calm nights that would push readings into the upper 50s. Thunderstorm chances (30–50%) during the evening could add brief cloud cover or moisture, slightly moderating the minimum but not enough to alter the central tendency. Model spread and subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing explain the tight clustering of probabilities across the 62–69°F range. New NWS forecast updates or high-resolution model runs tonight remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment among the closely matched outcomes.