Recent official forecasts from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and widespread thunderstorms over Guangzhou through August 25, driven by tropical moisture and weak steering flows. These conditions typically suppress nocturnal radiative cooling, supporting overnight lows near the 25–27°C seasonal norm rather than extreme deviations. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced between sub-22°C and 32°C+ outcomes because model runs show minor timing differences in rain bands that could either enhance cooling or maintain elevated dew points, while historical records (lowest 22°C in 2015) underscore the narrow margin for resolution. Updated NMC guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 25?
22°C or below 96%
32°C or higher 94%
31°C 45%
26°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
22°C or below
96%
23°C
23%
24°C
23%
25°C
23%
26°C
27%
27°C
27%
28°C
23%
29°C
23%
30°C
2%
31°C
45%
32°C or higher
94%
22°C or below 96%
32°C or higher 94%
31°C 45%
26°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
22°C or below
$5 Vol.
96%
23°C
$0 Vol.
23%
24°C
$0 Vol.
23%
25°C
$0 Vol.
23%
26°C
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$0 Vol.
27%
28°C
$0 Vol.
23%
29°C
$0 Vol.
23%
30°C
$5 Vol.
2%
31°C
$5 Vol.
45%
32°C or higher
$5 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and widespread thunderstorms over Guangzhou through August 25, driven by tropical moisture and weak steering flows. These conditions typically suppress nocturnal radiative cooling, supporting overnight lows near the 25–27°C seasonal norm rather than extreme deviations. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced between sub-22°C and 32°C+ outcomes because model runs show minor timing differences in rain bands that could either enhance cooling or maintain elevated dew points, while historical records (lowest 22°C in 2015) underscore the narrow margin for resolution. Updated NMC guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and widespread thunderstorms over Guangzhou through August 25, driven by tropical moisture and weak steering flows. These conditions typically suppress nocturnal radiative cooling, supporting overnight lows near the 25–27°C seasonal norm rather than extreme deviations. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced between sub-22°C and 32°C+ outcomes because model runs show minor timing differences in rain bands that could either enhance cooling or maintain elevated dew points, while historical records (lowest 22°C in 2015) underscore the narrow margin for resolution. Updated NMC guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and widespread thunderstorms over Guangzhou through August 25, driven by tropical moisture and weak steering flows. These conditions typically suppress nocturnal radiative cooling, supporting overnight lows near the 25–27°C seasonal norm rather than extreme deviations. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced between sub-22°C and 32°C+ outcomes because model runs show minor timing differences in rain bands that could either enhance cooling or maintain elevated dew points, while historical records (lowest 22°C in 2015) underscore the narrow margin for resolution. Updated NMC guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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