Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate overnight minimum temperatures in Helsinki near 7–9°C for September 14, with modest spread driven by variable cloud cover and light northerly winds. Clear skies would enhance radiative cooling after sunset, favoring readings closer to 5–7°C, while increased cloudiness or a slight shift in advection could hold lows near 10–12°C. These conditions align with climatological norms of 9.6°C average lows but sit well above the historical record low of 0.6°C. Market-implied odds near 50% for both sub-2°C and 12°C+ outcomes reflect trader focus on forecast uncertainty in boundary-layer processes and the next high-resolution model updates expected within 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Helsinki on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Helsinki on September 14?
2°C or below 100%
12°C or higher 98%
5°C 40%
6°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
2°C or below
100%
3°C
39%
4°C
39%
5°C
40%
6°C
40%
7°C
39%
8°C
39%
9°C
39%
10°C
39%
11°C
39%
12°C or higher
98%
2°C or below 100%
12°C or higher 98%
5°C 40%
6°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
2°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
3°C
$0 Vol.
39%
4°C
$0 Vol.
39%
5°C
$0 Vol.
40%
6°C
$0 Vol.
40%
7°C
$0 Vol.
39%
8°C
$0 Vol.
39%
9°C
$0 Vol.
39%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate overnight minimum temperatures in Helsinki near 7–9°C for September 14, with modest spread driven by variable cloud cover and light northerly winds. Clear skies would enhance radiative cooling after sunset, favoring readings closer to 5–7°C, while increased cloudiness or a slight shift in advection could hold lows near 10–12°C. These conditions align with climatological norms of 9.6°C average lows but sit well above the historical record low of 0.6°C. Market-implied odds near 50% for both sub-2°C and 12°C+ outcomes reflect trader focus on forecast uncertainty in boundary-layer processes and the next high-resolution model updates expected within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate overnight minimum temperatures in Helsinki near 7–9°C for September 14, with modest spread driven by variable cloud cover and light northerly winds. Clear skies would enhance radiative cooling after sunset, favoring readings closer to 5–7°C, while increased cloudiness or a slight shift in advection could hold lows near 10–12°C. These conditions align with climatological norms of 9.6°C average lows but sit well above the historical record low of 0.6°C. Market-implied odds near 50% for both sub-2°C and 12°C+ outcomes reflect trader focus on forecast uncertainty in boundary-layer processes and the next high-resolution model updates expected within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate overnight minimum temperatures in Helsinki near 7–9°C for September 14, with modest spread driven by variable cloud cover and light northerly winds. Clear skies would enhance radiative cooling after sunset, favoring readings closer to 5–7°C, while increased cloudiness or a slight shift in advection could hold lows near 10–12°C. These conditions align with climatological norms of 9.6°C average lows but sit well above the historical record low of 0.6°C. Market-implied odds near 50% for both sub-2°C and 12°C+ outcomes reflect trader focus on forecast uncertainty in boundary-layer processes and the next high-resolution model updates expected within 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions