Hong Kong's official minimum temperature on September 21 registered 27°C according to Hong Kong Observatory measurements, driving the overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for that outcome. September climatology in the region features typical overnight lows near 26–28°C under subtropical high pressure and light winds, with no significant cold front, typhoon passage, or cloud cover to depress readings further. Model consensus and real-time station data aligned closely with this value, leaving little room for revision. Only an undetected sensor error or post hoc data adjustment could shift resolution, scenarios traders assign negligible probability given the agency's established verification protocols.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 21?
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$14,732 Vol.
$14,732 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$14,732 Vol.
$14,732 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
22°C or below
$77 Vol.
No
23°C
$531 Vol.
No
24°C
$261 Vol.
No
25°C
$594 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,786 Vol.
No
27°C
$4,737 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$4,452 Vol.
No
29°C
$82 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,104 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,104 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$4 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's official minimum temperature on September 21 registered 27°C according to Hong Kong Observatory measurements, driving the overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for that outcome. September climatology in the region features typical overnight lows near 26–28°C under subtropical high pressure and light winds, with no significant cold front, typhoon passage, or cloud cover to depress readings further. Model consensus and real-time station data aligned closely with this value, leaving little room for revision. Only an undetected sensor error or post hoc data adjustment could shift resolution, scenarios traders assign negligible probability given the agency's established verification protocols.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$14,732End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's official minimum temperature on September 21 registered 27°C according to Hong Kong Observatory measurements, driving the overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for that outcome. September climatology in the region features typical overnight lows near 26–28°C under subtropical high pressure and light winds, with no significant cold front, typhoon passage, or cloud cover to depress readings further. Model consensus and real-time station data aligned closely with this value, leaving little room for revision. Only an undetected sensor error or post hoc data adjustment could shift resolution, scenarios traders assign negligible probability given the agency's established verification protocols.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$14,732End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Hong Kong's official minimum temperature on September 21 registered 27°C according to Hong Kong Observatory measurements, driving the overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for that outcome. September climatology in the region features typical overnight lows near 26–28°C under subtropical high pressure and light winds, with no significant cold front, typhoon passage, or cloud cover to depress readings further. Model consensus and real-time station data aligned closely with this value, leaving little room for revision. Only an undetected sensor error or post hoc data adjustment could shift resolution, scenarios traders assign negligible probability given the agency's established verification protocols.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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