Forecast consensus from multiple models places Istanbul's September 3 minimum temperature near 21°C under mostly clear skies, northeasterly winds of 5–8 m/s, and moderate humidity around 60–80% overnight, favoring typical radiative cooling after daytime highs of 28–29°C. Market-implied odds split nearly evenly between 17°C or below and 27°C or higher because small variations in cloud cover, wind speed, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the overnight low by several degrees, creating genuine forecast uncertainty at this short range. Historical September minima average near 18–20°C, providing context, while upcoming NHC-style regional model updates and surface observations will likely narrow the range before resolution. Traders weigh these atmospheric drivers against the skin-in-the-game consensus reflected in current probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 3?
17°C or below 69%
27°C or higher 69%
19°C 27%
20°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
17°C or below
69%
18°C
6%
19°C
27%
20°C
27%
21°C
27%
22°C
27%
23°C
27%
24°C
26%
25°C
2%
26°C
8%
27°C or higher
69%
17°C or below 69%
27°C or higher 69%
19°C 27%
20°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
17°C or below
$5 Vol.
69%
18°C
$5 Vol.
6%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
27%
21°C
$0 Vol.
27%
22°C
$0 Vol.
27%
23°C
$0 Vol.
27%
24°C
$0 Vol.
26%
25°C
$5 Vol.
2%
26°C
$5 Vol.
8%
27°C or higher
$5 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from multiple models places Istanbul's September 3 minimum temperature near 21°C under mostly clear skies, northeasterly winds of 5–8 m/s, and moderate humidity around 60–80% overnight, favoring typical radiative cooling after daytime highs of 28–29°C. Market-implied odds split nearly evenly between 17°C or below and 27°C or higher because small variations in cloud cover, wind speed, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the overnight low by several degrees, creating genuine forecast uncertainty at this short range. Historical September minima average near 18–20°C, providing context, while upcoming NHC-style regional model updates and surface observations will likely narrow the range before resolution. Traders weigh these atmospheric drivers against the skin-in-the-game consensus reflected in current probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from multiple models places Istanbul's September 3 minimum temperature near 21°C under mostly clear skies, northeasterly winds of 5–8 m/s, and moderate humidity around 60–80% overnight, favoring typical radiative cooling after daytime highs of 28–29°C. Market-implied odds split nearly evenly between 17°C or below and 27°C or higher because small variations in cloud cover, wind speed, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the overnight low by several degrees, creating genuine forecast uncertainty at this short range. Historical September minima average near 18–20°C, providing context, while upcoming NHC-style regional model updates and surface observations will likely narrow the range before resolution. Traders weigh these atmospheric drivers against the skin-in-the-game consensus reflected in current probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from multiple models places Istanbul's September 3 minimum temperature near 21°C under mostly clear skies, northeasterly winds of 5–8 m/s, and moderate humidity around 60–80% overnight, favoring typical radiative cooling after daytime highs of 28–29°C. Market-implied odds split nearly evenly between 17°C or below and 27°C or higher because small variations in cloud cover, wind speed, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the overnight low by several degrees, creating genuine forecast uncertainty at this short range. Historical September minima average near 18–20°C, providing context, while upcoming NHC-style regional model updates and surface observations will likely narrow the range before resolution. Traders weigh these atmospheric drivers against the skin-in-the-game consensus reflected in current probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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