Trader sentiment for Istanbul's lowest temperature on September 2 centers on the tight spread between 19–22°C outcomes, reflecting ensemble divergence in numerical weather prediction models such as ECMWF and GFS. Overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light northerly winds from the Black Sea creates the primary uncertainty, with sea surface temperatures near 24°C moderating coastal minima while the urban heat island effect in the city center could lift readings by 1–2°C. Recent model runs show slight cooling trends from clearer skies, yet forecast spread remains wide enough that updated 00Z and 12Z cycles tomorrow could shift probabilities before resolution criteria lock in the official Turkish State Meteorological Service observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 2?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 2?
19°C 100%
20°C 99%
22°C 51%
21°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
16°C or below
2%
17°C
6%
18°C
6%
19°C
100%
20°C
99%
21°C
50%
22°C
51%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
19°C 100%
20°C 99%
22°C 51%
21°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
16°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
17°C
$57 Vol.
6%
18°C
$69 Vol.
6%
19°C
$0 Vol.
100%
20°C
$0 Vol.
99%
21°C
$0 Vol.
50%
22°C
$0 Vol.
51%
23°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$89 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$30 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment for Istanbul's lowest temperature on September 2 centers on the tight spread between 19–22°C outcomes, reflecting ensemble divergence in numerical weather prediction models such as ECMWF and GFS. Overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light northerly winds from the Black Sea creates the primary uncertainty, with sea surface temperatures near 24°C moderating coastal minima while the urban heat island effect in the city center could lift readings by 1–2°C. Recent model runs show slight cooling trends from clearer skies, yet forecast spread remains wide enough that updated 00Z and 12Z cycles tomorrow could shift probabilities before resolution criteria lock in the official Turkish State Meteorological Service observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$320End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment for Istanbul's lowest temperature on September 2 centers on the tight spread between 19–22°C outcomes, reflecting ensemble divergence in numerical weather prediction models such as ECMWF and GFS. Overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light northerly winds from the Black Sea creates the primary uncertainty, with sea surface temperatures near 24°C moderating coastal minima while the urban heat island effect in the city center could lift readings by 1–2°C. Recent model runs show slight cooling trends from clearer skies, yet forecast spread remains wide enough that updated 00Z and 12Z cycles tomorrow could shift probabilities before resolution criteria lock in the official Turkish State Meteorological Service observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$320End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Istanbul's lowest temperature on September 2 centers on the tight spread between 19–22°C outcomes, reflecting ensemble divergence in numerical weather prediction models such as ECMWF and GFS. Overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light northerly winds from the Black Sea creates the primary uncertainty, with sea surface temperatures near 24°C moderating coastal minima while the urban heat island effect in the city center could lift readings by 1–2°C. Recent model runs show slight cooling trends from clearer skies, yet forecast spread remains wide enough that updated 00Z and 12Z cycles tomorrow could shift probabilities before resolution criteria lock in the official Turkish State Meteorological Service observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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