A strong heatwave driven by high pressure and southerly warm-air advection has elevated forecast overnight minima for London on June 23, 2026, to the 20–24 °C range according to the latest Met Office and ECMWF guidance. This positions the 20 °C outcome as the market leader because ensemble means cluster near that value, while residual model spread—particularly in boundary-layer humidity and cloud cover—keeps modest probabilities on both 24 °C or higher and slightly cooler 17–19 °C bins. Historical mid-June minima average 12–13 °C, so the current anomaly reflects the atypical persistence of the warm airmass rather than typical radiative cooling under clearer skies. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will determine whether the minimum settles closer to 20 °C or edges toward the higher thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on June 23?
Lowest temperature in London on June 23?
18°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$20,307 Vol.
$20,307 Vol.
Jun 23, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$20,307 Vol.
$20,307 Vol.
Jun 23, 2026
14°C or below
$546 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,009 Vol.
No
16°C
$2,301 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,122 Vol.
No
18°C
$4,310 Vol.
Yes
19°C
$3,829 Vol.
No
20°C
$3,279 Vol.
No
21°C
$534 Vol.
No
22°C
$649 Vol.
No
23°C
$727 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$999 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strong heatwave driven by high pressure and southerly warm-air advection has elevated forecast overnight minima for London on June 23, 2026, to the 20–24 °C range according to the latest Met Office and ECMWF guidance. This positions the 20 °C outcome as the market leader because ensemble means cluster near that value, while residual model spread—particularly in boundary-layer humidity and cloud cover—keeps modest probabilities on both 24 °C or higher and slightly cooler 17–19 °C bins. Historical mid-June minima average 12–13 °C, so the current anomaly reflects the atypical persistence of the warm airmass rather than typical radiative cooling under clearer skies. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will determine whether the minimum settles closer to 20 °C or edges toward the higher thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$20,307End Date
Jun 23, 2026Market Opened
Jun 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strong heatwave driven by high pressure and southerly warm-air advection has elevated forecast overnight minima for London on June 23, 2026, to the 20–24 °C range according to the latest Met Office and ECMWF guidance. This positions the 20 °C outcome as the market leader because ensemble means cluster near that value, while residual model spread—particularly in boundary-layer humidity and cloud cover—keeps modest probabilities on both 24 °C or higher and slightly cooler 17–19 °C bins. Historical mid-June minima average 12–13 °C, so the current anomaly reflects the atypical persistence of the warm airmass rather than typical radiative cooling under clearer skies. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will determine whether the minimum settles closer to 20 °C or edges toward the higher thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20,307End Date
Jun 23, 2026Market Opened
Jun 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
A strong heatwave driven by high pressure and southerly warm-air advection has elevated forecast overnight minima for London on June 23, 2026, to the 20–24 °C range according to the latest Met Office and ECMWF guidance. This positions the 20 °C outcome as the market leader because ensemble means cluster near that value, while residual model spread—particularly in boundary-layer humidity and cloud cover—keeps modest probabilities on both 24 °C or higher and slightly cooler 17–19 °C bins. Historical mid-June minima average 12–13 °C, so the current anomaly reflects the atypical persistence of the warm airmass rather than typical radiative cooling under clearer skies. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will determine whether the minimum settles closer to 20 °C or edges toward the higher thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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