Short-term forecast uncertainty for London on September 26 centers on competing Atlantic weather regimes. Ensemble models show roughly equal odds of a cooler northerly flow bringing minimum temperatures of 8°C or below versus a milder southerly or high-pressure setup pushing readings to 18°C or higher. Key differentiators include jet stream position, which steers frontal systems and air masses, along with evolving surface pressure patterns that determine overnight radiative cooling under clear skies versus cloud cover that traps heat. Historical late-September baselines around 10–14°C highlight how small shifts in these variables can swing outcomes by several degrees, with new model runs and observational updates expected to refine probabilities ahead of the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on September 26?
Lowest temperature in London on September 26?
8°C or below 36%
10°C 34%
9°C 33%
13°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
8°C or below
36%
9°C
33%
10°C
34%
11°C
19%
12°C
18%
13°C
29%
14°C
29%
15°C
20%
16°C
8%
17°C
5%
18°C or higher
1%
8°C or below 36%
10°C 34%
9°C 33%
13°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
36%
9°C
$0 Vol.
33%
10°C
$0 Vol.
34%
11°C
$0 Vol.
19%
12°C
$0 Vol.
18%
13°C
$0 Vol.
29%
14°C
$0 Vol.
29%
15°C
$28 Vol.
20%
16°C
$0 Vol.
8%
17°C
$0 Vol.
5%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty for London on September 26 centers on competing Atlantic weather regimes. Ensemble models show roughly equal odds of a cooler northerly flow bringing minimum temperatures of 8°C or below versus a milder southerly or high-pressure setup pushing readings to 18°C or higher. Key differentiators include jet stream position, which steers frontal systems and air masses, along with evolving surface pressure patterns that determine overnight radiative cooling under clear skies versus cloud cover that traps heat. Historical late-September baselines around 10–14°C highlight how small shifts in these variables can swing outcomes by several degrees, with new model runs and observational updates expected to refine probabilities ahead of the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$28End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty for London on September 26 centers on competing Atlantic weather regimes. Ensemble models show roughly equal odds of a cooler northerly flow bringing minimum temperatures of 8°C or below versus a milder southerly or high-pressure setup pushing readings to 18°C or higher. Key differentiators include jet stream position, which steers frontal systems and air masses, along with evolving surface pressure patterns that determine overnight radiative cooling under clear skies versus cloud cover that traps heat. Historical late-September baselines around 10–14°C highlight how small shifts in these variables can swing outcomes by several degrees, with new model runs and observational updates expected to refine probabilities ahead of the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$28End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47de9d...Short-term forecast uncertainty for London on September 26 centers on competing Atlantic weather regimes. Ensemble models show roughly equal odds of a cooler northerly flow bringing minimum temperatures of 8°C or below versus a milder southerly or high-pressure setup pushing readings to 18°C or higher. Key differentiators include jet stream position, which steers frontal systems and air masses, along with evolving surface pressure patterns that determine overnight radiative cooling under clear skies versus cloud cover that traps heat. Historical late-September baselines around 10–14°C highlight how small shifts in these variables can swing outcomes by several degrees, with new model runs and observational updates expected to refine probabilities ahead of the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions