Recent forecast models from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international sources indicate a typical August overnight low near 13–14 °C for Mexico City, driven by its high elevation (~2,240 m), moderate humidity from the rainy season, and variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Afternoon showers and urban heat-island effects further moderate temperature drops, while light winds and the absence of strong cold-air intrusions keep extremes unlikely. The closely matched market probabilities around 13–15 °C reflect genuine uncertainty in exact minimum readings, which depend on precise timing of cloud breaks, local station differences, and final observational data released after midnight. Updated model runs and official daily summaries expected later today will likely refine these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 21?
15°C 32%
13°C 31%
14°C 31%
16°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
9°C or below
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
3%
12°C
28%
13°C
31%
14°C
31%
15°C
32%
16°C
28%
17°C
27%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 32%
13°C 31%
14°C 31%
16°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
9°C or below
$155 Vol.
1%
10°C
$50 Vol.
1%
11°C
$128 Vol.
3%
12°C
$0 Vol.
28%
13°C
$1 Vol.
31%
14°C
$1 Vol.
31%
15°C
$1 Vol.
32%
16°C
$0 Vol.
28%
17°C
$10 Vol.
27%
18°C
$117 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$120 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international sources indicate a typical August overnight low near 13–14 °C for Mexico City, driven by its high elevation (~2,240 m), moderate humidity from the rainy season, and variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Afternoon showers and urban heat-island effects further moderate temperature drops, while light winds and the absence of strong cold-air intrusions keep extremes unlikely. The closely matched market probabilities around 13–15 °C reflect genuine uncertainty in exact minimum readings, which depend on precise timing of cloud breaks, local station differences, and final observational data released after midnight. Updated model runs and official daily summaries expected later today will likely refine these odds.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$583End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international sources indicate a typical August overnight low near 13–14 °C for Mexico City, driven by its high elevation (~2,240 m), moderate humidity from the rainy season, and variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Afternoon showers and urban heat-island effects further moderate temperature drops, while light winds and the absence of strong cold-air intrusions keep extremes unlikely. The closely matched market probabilities around 13–15 °C reflect genuine uncertainty in exact minimum readings, which depend on precise timing of cloud breaks, local station differences, and final observational data released after midnight. Updated model runs and official daily summaries expected later today will likely refine these odds.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$583End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international sources indicate a typical August overnight low near 13–14 °C for Mexico City, driven by its high elevation (~2,240 m), moderate humidity from the rainy season, and variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Afternoon showers and urban heat-island effects further moderate temperature drops, while light winds and the absence of strong cold-air intrusions keep extremes unlikely. The closely matched market probabilities around 13–15 °C reflect genuine uncertainty in exact minimum readings, which depend on precise timing of cloud breaks, local station differences, and final observational data released after midnight. Updated model runs and official daily summaries expected later today will likely refine these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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