Recent National Weather Service model guidance and ensemble forecasts for New York City point to an overnight low in the upper 60s on June 18, with the 68–69°F bin holding the highest implied probability at 37% amid tight clustering around 66–69°F. Key differentiating factors include variable radiative cooling rates under partly cloudy conditions, light southerly winds limiting mixing, and the moderating influence of coastal humidity and the urban heat island effect at the official Central Park station. Minor shifts in forecast timing or cloud cover could push the minimum across bin boundaries, while historical June climatology shows typical lows near 62–65°F, underscoring the current warmer anomaly. Updated NWS briefings and hourly observations through dawn will refine resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on June 18?
Lowest temperature in NYC on June 18?
68-69°F 100.0%
59°F or below <1%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
$48,263 Vol.
$48,263 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
59°F or below
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
Yes
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78°F or higher
No
68-69°F 100.0%
59°F or below <1%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
$48,263 Vol.
$48,263 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
59°F or below
$5,535 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$1,074 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$1,872 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$1,989 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$4,934 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$9,160 Vol.
Yes
70-71°F
$3,928 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$5,389 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$6,044 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$3,144 Vol.
No
78°F or higher
$5,193 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model guidance and ensemble forecasts for New York City point to an overnight low in the upper 60s on June 18, with the 68–69°F bin holding the highest implied probability at 37% amid tight clustering around 66–69°F. Key differentiating factors include variable radiative cooling rates under partly cloudy conditions, light southerly winds limiting mixing, and the moderating influence of coastal humidity and the urban heat island effect at the official Central Park station. Minor shifts in forecast timing or cloud cover could push the minimum across bin boundaries, while historical June climatology shows typical lows near 62–65°F, underscoring the current warmer anomaly. Updated NWS briefings and hourly observations through dawn will refine resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 16, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$48,263End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
Jun 16, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model guidance and ensemble forecasts for New York City point to an overnight low in the upper 60s on June 18, with the 68–69°F bin holding the highest implied probability at 37% amid tight clustering around 66–69°F. Key differentiating factors include variable radiative cooling rates under partly cloudy conditions, light southerly winds limiting mixing, and the moderating influence of coastal humidity and the urban heat island effect at the official Central Park station. Minor shifts in forecast timing or cloud cover could push the minimum across bin boundaries, while historical June climatology shows typical lows near 62–65°F, underscoring the current warmer anomaly. Updated NWS briefings and hourly observations through dawn will refine resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$48,263End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
Jun 16, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent National Weather Service model guidance and ensemble forecasts for New York City point to an overnight low in the upper 60s on June 18, with the 68–69°F bin holding the highest implied probability at 37% amid tight clustering around 66–69°F. Key differentiating factors include variable radiative cooling rates under partly cloudy conditions, light southerly winds limiting mixing, and the moderating influence of coastal humidity and the urban heat island effect at the official Central Park station. Minor shifts in forecast timing or cloud cover could push the minimum across bin boundaries, while historical June climatology shows typical lows near 62–65°F, underscoring the current warmer anomaly. Updated NWS briefings and hourly observations through dawn will refine resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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