Recent forecasts from agencies and models including the Met Office, Météo-France-aligned sources, and ECMWF/GFS runs show Paris overnight lows on August 29 settling near 16–17 °C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and southwesterly winds of 15–25 km/h. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping minima above the long-term August 29 average of roughly 13.5 °C. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds aligns closely with this guidance, placing heaviest weight on 16 °C while assigning lower probability to cooler 15 °C or warmer 18 °C outcomes. Updated model runs and any revisions to cloud or wind forecasts over the next 12–24 hours remain the key variables that could shift the distribution before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 29?
16°C 48%
17°C 30%
15°C 17%
18°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
3%
13°C
4%
14°C
3%
15°C
17%
16°C
48%
17°C
19%
18°C
14%
19°C
3%
20°C
3%
21°C or higher
1%
16°C 48%
17°C 30%
15°C 17%
18°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
11°C or below
$15 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$5 Vol.
3%
13°C
$54 Vol.
4%
14°C
$46 Vol.
3%
15°C
$0 Vol.
17%
16°C
$99 Vol.
48%
17°C
$3 Vol.
19%
18°C
$92 Vol.
14%
19°C
$80 Vol.
3%
20°C
$5 Vol.
3%
21°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies and models including the Met Office, Météo-France-aligned sources, and ECMWF/GFS runs show Paris overnight lows on August 29 settling near 16–17 °C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and southwesterly winds of 15–25 km/h. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping minima above the long-term August 29 average of roughly 13.5 °C. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds aligns closely with this guidance, placing heaviest weight on 16 °C while assigning lower probability to cooler 15 °C or warmer 18 °C outcomes. Updated model runs and any revisions to cloud or wind forecasts over the next 12–24 hours remain the key variables that could shift the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$403End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies and models including the Met Office, Météo-France-aligned sources, and ECMWF/GFS runs show Paris overnight lows on August 29 settling near 16–17 °C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and southwesterly winds of 15–25 km/h. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping minima above the long-term August 29 average of roughly 13.5 °C. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds aligns closely with this guidance, placing heaviest weight on 16 °C while assigning lower probability to cooler 15 °C or warmer 18 °C outcomes. Updated model runs and any revisions to cloud or wind forecasts over the next 12–24 hours remain the key variables that could shift the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$403End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from agencies and models including the Met Office, Météo-France-aligned sources, and ECMWF/GFS runs show Paris overnight lows on August 29 settling near 16–17 °C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and southwesterly winds of 15–25 km/h. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping minima above the long-term August 29 average of roughly 13.5 °C. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds aligns closely with this guidance, placing heaviest weight on 16 °C while assigning lower probability to cooler 15 °C or warmer 18 °C outcomes. Updated model runs and any revisions to cloud or wind forecasts over the next 12–24 hours remain the key variables that could shift the distribution before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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