Persistent monsoon-driven thunderstorms and heavy showers forecast for Shenzhen on August 25 are the main catalyst positioning lower minimum temperatures as the market leader, with traders assigning 44.5% implied probability to 23°C or below. In this subtropical climate, frequent convection and cloud cover typically suppress radiative cooling overnight, keeping daily lows near the August climatological average of 26–27°C while allowing occasional dips into the mid-20s when rain is widespread. Recent model consensus from sources including the Met Office and BBC shows overnight minima of 25–27°C amid thundery conditions, with high humidity and light winds limiting further cooling. Upcoming official updates from Chinese meteorological agencies on steering patterns and rainfall totals could shift probabilities if drier air intrudes or persistent cloud cover deepens.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 25?
23°C or below 91%
33°C or higher 48%
30°C 45%
32°C 45%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
91%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
28%
27°C
30%
28°C
24%
29°C
23%
30°C
45%
31°C
2%
32°C
45%
33°C or higher
48%
23°C or below 91%
33°C or higher 48%
30°C 45%
32°C 45%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
$5 Vol.
91%
24°C
$0 Vol.
26%
25°C
$0 Vol.
26%
26°C
$0 Vol.
28%
27°C
$0 Vol.
30%
28°C
$0 Vol.
24%
29°C
$0 Vol.
23%
30°C
$5 Vol.
45%
31°C
$5 Vol.
2%
32°C
$5 Vol.
45%
33°C or higher
$5 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent monsoon-driven thunderstorms and heavy showers forecast for Shenzhen on August 25 are the main catalyst positioning lower minimum temperatures as the market leader, with traders assigning 44.5% implied probability to 23°C or below. In this subtropical climate, frequent convection and cloud cover typically suppress radiative cooling overnight, keeping daily lows near the August climatological average of 26–27°C while allowing occasional dips into the mid-20s when rain is widespread. Recent model consensus from sources including the Met Office and BBC shows overnight minima of 25–27°C amid thundery conditions, with high humidity and light winds limiting further cooling. Upcoming official updates from Chinese meteorological agencies on steering patterns and rainfall totals could shift probabilities if drier air intrudes or persistent cloud cover deepens.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent monsoon-driven thunderstorms and heavy showers forecast for Shenzhen on August 25 are the main catalyst positioning lower minimum temperatures as the market leader, with traders assigning 44.5% implied probability to 23°C or below. In this subtropical climate, frequent convection and cloud cover typically suppress radiative cooling overnight, keeping daily lows near the August climatological average of 26–27°C while allowing occasional dips into the mid-20s when rain is widespread. Recent model consensus from sources including the Met Office and BBC shows overnight minima of 25–27°C amid thundery conditions, with high humidity and light winds limiting further cooling. Upcoming official updates from Chinese meteorological agencies on steering patterns and rainfall totals could shift probabilities if drier air intrudes or persistent cloud cover deepens.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent monsoon-driven thunderstorms and heavy showers forecast for Shenzhen on August 25 are the main catalyst positioning lower minimum temperatures as the market leader, with traders assigning 44.5% implied probability to 23°C or below. In this subtropical climate, frequent convection and cloud cover typically suppress radiative cooling overnight, keeping daily lows near the August climatological average of 26–27°C while allowing occasional dips into the mid-20s when rain is widespread. Recent model consensus from sources including the Met Office and BBC shows overnight minima of 25–27°C amid thundery conditions, with high humidity and light winds limiting further cooling. Upcoming official updates from Chinese meteorological agencies on steering patterns and rainfall totals could shift probabilities if drier air intrudes or persistent cloud cover deepens.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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