Recent forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global models point to overnight lows in Taipei potentially dipping below typical August averages of 26–27°C due to increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and lingering moisture from regional monsoon patterns, limiting radiative cooling. These conditions, combined with southwesterly flow, have driven trader consensus toward 21°C or below as the leading outcome at 45% implied probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of model consensus on suppressed nighttime temperatures. Historical August data shows occasional cooler nights during unsettled periods, though uncertainty remains around exact minimums pending final observational data from local stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Taipei on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Taipei on August 21?
23°C 59%
22°C 53%
25°C 35%
26°C 35%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
21°C or below
-
22°C
53%
23°C
59%
24°C
34%
25°C
35%
26°C
35%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
23°C 59%
22°C 53%
25°C 35%
26°C 35%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
21°C or below
$117 Vol.
-
22°C
$92 Vol.
53%
23°C
$98 Vol.
59%
24°C
$6 Vol.
34%
25°C
$0 Vol.
35%
26°C
$0 Vol.
35%
27°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$95 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$95 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$95 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$95 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global models point to overnight lows in Taipei potentially dipping below typical August averages of 26–27°C due to increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and lingering moisture from regional monsoon patterns, limiting radiative cooling. These conditions, combined with southwesterly flow, have driven trader consensus toward 21°C or below as the leading outcome at 45% implied probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of model consensus on suppressed nighttime temperatures. Historical August data shows occasional cooler nights during unsettled periods, though uncertainty remains around exact minimums pending final observational data from local stations.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Volume
$719End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global models point to overnight lows in Taipei potentially dipping below typical August averages of 26–27°C due to increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and lingering moisture from regional monsoon patterns, limiting radiative cooling. These conditions, combined with southwesterly flow, have driven trader consensus toward 21°C or below as the leading outcome at 45% implied probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of model consensus on suppressed nighttime temperatures. Historical August data shows occasional cooler nights during unsettled periods, though uncertainty remains around exact minimums pending final observational data from local stations.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$719End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global models point to overnight lows in Taipei potentially dipping below typical August averages of 26–27°C due to increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and lingering moisture from regional monsoon patterns, limiting radiative cooling. These conditions, combined with southwesterly flow, have driven trader consensus toward 21°C or below as the leading outcome at 45% implied probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of model consensus on suppressed nighttime temperatures. Historical August data shows occasional cooler nights during unsettled periods, though uncertainty remains around exact minimums pending final observational data from local stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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