Latest global model runs, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, show typical late-September conditions over the eastern Mediterranean with light northwesterly winds, partly cloudy skies, and dew points near 18–20°C, producing forecast overnight lows for Tel Aviv on September 23 centered around 23–25°C. This equilibrium between radiative cooling under clear periods and mild advection from the sea explains why market-implied odds cluster near 23°C while still assigning notable probability to 19°C or below and 29°C or higher. Minor differences in boundary-layer moisture and cloud timing across model members create the current spread, with the next high-resolution updates from the Israel Meteorological Service and revised ensemble means expected to narrow resolution criteria ahead of the daily minimum observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 23?
29°C or higher 89%
19°C or below 87%
20°C 39%
21°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
19°C or below
87%
20°C
39%
21°C
39%
22°C
39%
23°C
35%
24°C
23%
25°C
13%
26°C
39%
27°C
39%
28°C
39%
29°C or higher
89%
29°C or higher 89%
19°C or below 87%
20°C 39%
21°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
19°C or below
$0 Vol.
87%
20°C
$0 Vol.
39%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
35%
24°C
$0 Vol.
23%
25°C
$0 Vol.
13%
26°C
$0 Vol.
39%
27°C
$0 Vol.
39%
28°C
$0 Vol.
39%
29°C or higher
$0 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest global model runs, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, show typical late-September conditions over the eastern Mediterranean with light northwesterly winds, partly cloudy skies, and dew points near 18–20°C, producing forecast overnight lows for Tel Aviv on September 23 centered around 23–25°C. This equilibrium between radiative cooling under clear periods and mild advection from the sea explains why market-implied odds cluster near 23°C while still assigning notable probability to 19°C or below and 29°C or higher. Minor differences in boundary-layer moisture and cloud timing across model members create the current spread, with the next high-resolution updates from the Israel Meteorological Service and revised ensemble means expected to narrow resolution criteria ahead of the daily minimum observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest global model runs, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, show typical late-September conditions over the eastern Mediterranean with light northwesterly winds, partly cloudy skies, and dew points near 18–20°C, producing forecast overnight lows for Tel Aviv on September 23 centered around 23–25°C. This equilibrium between radiative cooling under clear periods and mild advection from the sea explains why market-implied odds cluster near 23°C while still assigning notable probability to 19°C or below and 29°C or higher. Minor differences in boundary-layer moisture and cloud timing across model members create the current spread, with the next high-resolution updates from the Israel Meteorological Service and revised ensemble means expected to narrow resolution criteria ahead of the daily minimum observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest global model runs, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, show typical late-September conditions over the eastern Mediterranean with light northwesterly winds, partly cloudy skies, and dew points near 18–20°C, producing forecast overnight lows for Tel Aviv on September 23 centered around 23–25°C. This equilibrium between radiative cooling under clear periods and mild advection from the sea explains why market-implied odds cluster near 23°C while still assigning notable probability to 19°C or below and 29°C or higher. Minor differences in boundary-layer moisture and cloud timing across model members create the current spread, with the next high-resolution updates from the Israel Meteorological Service and revised ensemble means expected to narrow resolution criteria ahead of the daily minimum observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions