Recent forecast model runs for Warsaw show considerable uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light variable winds, keeping the expected minimum temperature clustered near the long-term August climatological average of 13–15 °C. Official guidance from regional meteorological services indicates potential for 14–16 °C depending on the exact timing of any passing showers and boundary-layer moisture, which modulates heat retention; this range aligns with the tightly bunched market-implied probabilities at 34 % for 14 °C, 15 °C, and 16 °C. Traders are weighting the modest spread in ensemble outputs and the possibility of slightly stronger nocturnal drainage or clearer intervals that could dip to 13 °C, while probabilities collapse sharply outside 12–17 °C given the absence of anomalous synoptic forcing on 21 August.