Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate an incoming cold front will drive Wuhan's September 17 minimum temperature into the 17–20 °C range, with widespread rain and northeasterly winds enhancing cooling through increased cloud cover and evaporative effects. This shift from recent 24–25 °C lows explains the near-even market split between the 14 °C-or-below and 24 °C-or-higher bins, as traders weigh model consensus on frontal timing against residual uncertainty in exact overnight radiative cooling under persistent overcast skies. Historical September minima in Wuhan average near 20 °C, so the projected 3–5 °C anomaly creates the tightest probability mass around 18–20 °C outcomes visible in the order book. Updated NMC and ECMWF runs expected within 24 hours will likely resolve the remaining variance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wuhan on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Wuhan on September 17?
14°C or below 75%
24°C or higher 71%
15°C 40%
16°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
14°C or below
75%
15°C
40%
16°C
40%
17°C
40%
18°C
24%
19°C
29%
20°C
26%
21°C
40%
22°C
40%
23°C
40%
24°C or higher
71%
14°C or below 75%
24°C or higher 71%
15°C 40%
16°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
75%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C
$0 Vol.
40%
17°C
$0 Vol.
40%
18°C
$0 Vol.
24%
19°C
$0 Vol.
29%
20°C
$0 Vol.
26%
21°C
$0 Vol.
40%
22°C
$0 Vol.
40%
23°C
$0 Vol.
40%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate an incoming cold front will drive Wuhan's September 17 minimum temperature into the 17–20 °C range, with widespread rain and northeasterly winds enhancing cooling through increased cloud cover and evaporative effects. This shift from recent 24–25 °C lows explains the near-even market split between the 14 °C-or-below and 24 °C-or-higher bins, as traders weigh model consensus on frontal timing against residual uncertainty in exact overnight radiative cooling under persistent overcast skies. Historical September minima in Wuhan average near 20 °C, so the projected 3–5 °C anomaly creates the tightest probability mass around 18–20 °C outcomes visible in the order book. Updated NMC and ECMWF runs expected within 24 hours will likely resolve the remaining variance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate an incoming cold front will drive Wuhan's September 17 minimum temperature into the 17–20 °C range, with widespread rain and northeasterly winds enhancing cooling through increased cloud cover and evaporative effects. This shift from recent 24–25 °C lows explains the near-even market split between the 14 °C-or-below and 24 °C-or-higher bins, as traders weigh model consensus on frontal timing against residual uncertainty in exact overnight radiative cooling under persistent overcast skies. Historical September minima in Wuhan average near 20 °C, so the projected 3–5 °C anomaly creates the tightest probability mass around 18–20 °C outcomes visible in the order book. Updated NMC and ECMWF runs expected within 24 hours will likely resolve the remaining variance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate an incoming cold front will drive Wuhan's September 17 minimum temperature into the 17–20 °C range, with widespread rain and northeasterly winds enhancing cooling through increased cloud cover and evaporative effects. This shift from recent 24–25 °C lows explains the near-even market split between the 14 °C-or-below and 24 °C-or-higher bins, as traders weigh model consensus on frontal timing against residual uncertainty in exact overnight radiative cooling under persistent overcast skies. Historical September minima in Wuhan average near 20 °C, so the projected 3–5 °C anomaly creates the tightest probability mass around 18–20 °C outcomes visible in the order book. Updated NMC and ECMWF runs expected within 24 hours will likely resolve the remaining variance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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