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Politics·Primaries

PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner

Sharif Street 40%

Ala Stanford 34.8%

Chris Rabb 21.0%

David Oxman 1.6%

Polymarket

$21,175 Vol.

Sharif Street 40%

Ala Stanford 34.8%

Chris Rabb 21.0%

David Oxman 1.6%

Polymarket

$21,175 Vol.

Sharif Street

$5,370 Vol.

40%

Ala Stanford

$2,030 Vol.

37%

Chris Rabb

$2,033 Vol.

22%

David Oxman

$4,009 Vol.

2%

Morgan Cephas

$1,056 Vol.

1%

Robin Toldens

$3,282 Vol.

1%

Gabriel Caceres

$3,395 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary on May 19, trader consensus reflects a dead heat between pediatric surgeon Ala Stanford at 38.9% and state Sen. Sharif Street at 38.0%, with state Rep. Chris Rabb trailing at 21.6% amid a fragmented field of six. Recent field narrowing after dropouts like Morgan Cephas and David Oxman—who endorsed Stanford—has consolidated support, but a pro-Stanford PPP poll from April 1-2 showing her at 28%, Rabb 23%, and Street 16% boosted her odds, counterbalanced by Street's labor backing including a fresh Philadelphia AFL-CIO recommendation and expected Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker endorsement. Rabb gained from the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC nod last week. Separation could come from further endorsements, ad spending by Stanford's 314 Action Fund super PAC, or superior turnout in Philadelphia's diverse neighborhoods.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$21,175
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary on May 19, trader consensus reflects a dead heat between pediatric surgeon Ala Stanford at 38.9% and state Sen. Sharif Street at 38.0%, with state Rep. Chris Rabb trailing at 21.6% amid a fragmented field of six. Recent field narrowing after dropouts like Morgan Cephas and David Oxman—who endorsed Stanford—has consolidated support, but a pro-Stanford PPP poll from April 1-2 showing her at 28%, Rabb 23%, and Street 16% boosted her odds, counterbalanced by Street's labor backing including a fresh Philadelphia AFL-CIO recommendation and expected Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker endorsement. Rabb gained from the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC nod last week. Separation could come from further endorsements, ad spending by Stanford's 314 Action Fund super PAC, or superior turnout in Philadelphia's diverse neighborhoods.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$21,175
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Sharif Street" at 40%, followed by "Ala Stanford" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $21.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Sharif Street" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ala Stanford" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.