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Politics·Swalwell

Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?

Market icon
Politics·Swalwell

Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?

44% chance
Polymarket
NEW

$16,426 Vol.

44% chance
Polymarket
NEW

$16,426 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) and Tony Gonzales (R-TX) resigned from the House on April 14 amid sexual misconduct allegations and looming expulsion votes, satisfying half the market condition but leaving Cory Mills (R-FL) and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) in office. Cherfilus-McCormick faces expulsion calls from Speaker Mike Johnson after a House Ethics Committee report cited 25 violations, including misusing over $5 million in COVID relief funds, while Mills confronts sexual harassment probes. Traders price "No" at 56% implied probability, reflecting the historical rarity of House expulsions—requiring a two-thirds supermajority vote—and partisan resistance to floor actions before May 31, despite bipartisan pressure from members like Rep. Nancy Mace.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$16,426
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 11:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) and Tony Gonzales (R-TX) resigned from the House on April 14 amid sexual misconduct allegations and looming expulsion votes, satisfying half the market condition but leaving Cory Mills (R-FL) and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) in office. Cherfilus-McCormick faces expulsion calls from Speaker Mike Johnson after a House Ethics Committee report cited 25 violations, including misusing over $5 million in COVID relief funds, while Mills confronts sexual harassment probes. Traders price "No" at 56% implied probability, reflecting the historical rarity of House expulsions—requiring a two-thirds supermajority vote—and partisan resistance to floor actions before May 31, despite bipartisan pressure from members like Rep. Nancy Mace.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$16,426
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 11:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

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Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31?

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Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick out as US Rep by May 31?

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Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 44% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 44¢, the market collectively assigns a 44% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?" has generated $16.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?" is 44% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 44% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.