Incumbent August Pfluger holds a commanding position in the Texas 11th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Republican lean, reflected in prior presidential margins exceeding 30 points and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican. Pfluger ran unopposed in the March 2026 primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $3.2 million raised compared to Democratic nominee Claire Reynolds' roughly $89,000. Reynolds advanced from her primary but faces structural barriers in a district redrawn after the 2025 map changes. A single debate scheduled for October 5 offers limited opportunity to shift dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus pricing aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as national partisan swings or unforeseen candidate events could still alter outcomes before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-11 House Election Winner
TX-11 House Election Winner
$32,191 Vol.
$32,191 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
August Pfluger (R)
94%
Claire Reynolds (D)
6%
$32,191 Vol.
$32,191 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
August Pfluger (R)
$8,893 Vol.
94%
Claire Reynolds (D)
$23,298 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent August Pfluger holds a commanding position in the Texas 11th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Republican lean, reflected in prior presidential margins exceeding 30 points and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican. Pfluger ran unopposed in the March 2026 primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $3.2 million raised compared to Democratic nominee Claire Reynolds' roughly $89,000. Reynolds advanced from her primary but faces structural barriers in a district redrawn after the 2025 map changes. A single debate scheduled for October 5 offers limited opportunity to shift dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus pricing aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as national partisan swings or unforeseen candidate events could still alter outcomes before ballots close.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$32,191End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent August Pfluger holds a commanding position in the Texas 11th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Republican lean, reflected in prior presidential margins exceeding 30 points and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican. Pfluger ran unopposed in the March 2026 primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $3.2 million raised compared to Democratic nominee Claire Reynolds' roughly $89,000. Reynolds advanced from her primary but faces structural barriers in a district redrawn after the 2025 map changes. A single debate scheduled for October 5 offers limited opportunity to shift dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus pricing aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as national partisan swings or unforeseen candidate events could still alter outcomes before ballots close.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,191End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent August Pfluger holds a commanding position in the Texas 11th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Republican lean, reflected in prior presidential margins exceeding 30 points and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican. Pfluger ran unopposed in the March 2026 primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $3.2 million raised compared to Democratic nominee Claire Reynolds' roughly $89,000. Reynolds advanced from her primary but faces structural barriers in a district redrawn after the 2025 map changes. A single debate scheduled for October 5 offers limited opportunity to shift dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus pricing aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as national partisan swings or unforeseen candidate events could still alter outcomes before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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