A fragile US-Iran ceasefire announced on April 8, 2026, following nearly six weeks of intense conflict sparked by US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military, nuclear, and leadership targets starting February 28, anchors current trader sentiment amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war. The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists, halting Iranian maritime trade and prompting Tehran's warnings of retaliatory strikes on Gulf ports, energy infrastructure, and potential Red Sea closure if unrelieved. Israel continues airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon—excluded from the truce—while Iranian-backed militias launch drone attacks on regional US assets. Pakistan proposed renewed US-Iran talks on April 14 as the two-week ceasefire nears expiration around April 21, heightening uncertainty over direct Iranian escalation before April 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhat will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
$463,166 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Ruwais Refinery
24%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
24%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
23%
Khurais Field
20%
Ras Tanura
19%
Ghawar Field
16%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
15%
Al Zour Refinery
14%
Safaniya Field
11%
Leviathan Field
8%
Burj Khalifa
5%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
3%
$463,166 Vol.
Ruwais Refinery
$39,640 Vol.
24%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$35,772 Vol.
24%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
$46,276 Vol.
23%
Khurais Field
$14,779 Vol.
20%
Ras Tanura
$37,991 Vol.
19%
Ghawar Field
$12,204 Vol.
16%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
$38,125 Vol.
15%
Al Zour Refinery
$30,213 Vol.
14%
Safaniya Field
$11,485 Vol.
11%
Leviathan Field
$7,662 Vol.
8%
Burj Khalifa
$7,930 Vol.
5%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
$77,899 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.A fragile US-Iran ceasefire announced on April 8, 2026, following nearly six weeks of intense conflict sparked by US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military, nuclear, and leadership targets starting February 28, anchors current trader sentiment amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war. The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists, halting Iranian maritime trade and prompting Tehran's warnings of retaliatory strikes on Gulf ports, energy infrastructure, and potential Red Sea closure if unrelieved. Israel continues airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon—excluded from the truce—while Iranian-backed militias launch drone attacks on regional US assets. Pakistan proposed renewed US-Iran talks on April 14 as the two-week ceasefire nears expiration around April 21, heightening uncertainty over direct Iranian escalation before April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$463,166End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.A fragile US-Iran ceasefire announced on April 8, 2026, following nearly six weeks of intense conflict sparked by US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military, nuclear, and leadership targets starting February 28, anchors current trader sentiment amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war. The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists, halting Iranian maritime trade and prompting Tehran's warnings of retaliatory strikes on Gulf ports, energy infrastructure, and potential Red Sea closure if unrelieved. Israel continues airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon—excluded from the truce—while Iranian-backed militias launch drone attacks on regional US assets. Pakistan proposed renewed US-Iran talks on April 14 as the two-week ceasefire nears expiration around April 21, heightening uncertainty over direct Iranian escalation before April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$463,166End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile US-Iran ceasefire announced on April 8, 2026, following nearly six weeks of intense conflict sparked by US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military, nuclear, and leadership targets starting February 28, anchors current trader sentiment amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war. The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists, halting Iranian maritime trade and prompting Tehran's warnings of retaliatory strikes on Gulf ports, energy infrastructure, and potential Red Sea closure if unrelieved. Israel continues airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon—excluded from the truce—while Iranian-backed militias launch drone attacks on regional US assets. Pakistan proposed renewed US-Iran talks on April 14 as the two-week ceasefire nears expiration around April 21, heightening uncertainty over direct Iranian escalation before April 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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