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Geopolitics·Russia

Will Putin visit China by May 31?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Russia

Will Putin visit China by May 31?

73% chance
Polymarket
NEW
73% chance
Polymarket
NEW
If Vladimir Putin visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Putin physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Putin enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Vladimir Putin, the Federal Government of Russia, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed in early February that President Vladimir Putin accepted President Xi Jinping's invitation for an official visit to China in the first half of 2026 during their videoconference, where both leaders outlined a "grand plan" to deepen strategic partnership amid global tensions. Recent reports from late March, including South China Morning Post, indicate Putin plans to travel immediately after U.S. President Trump's May 14-15 Beijing summit, positioning the trip in late May to advance bilateral energy, security, and Eurasian cooperation. This sequence of diplomatic signals drives trader consensus to 72.5% "Yes," reflecting strengthened Russia-China ties despite no formal May date announcement yet; potential shifts could arise from Ukraine developments or scheduling conflicts before May 31 resolution.

If Vladimir Putin visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Putin physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Putin enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Vladimir Putin, the Federal Government of Russia, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$4,168
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If Vladimir Putin visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Putin physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Putin enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Vladimir Putin, the Federal Government of Russia, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If Vladimir Putin visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Putin physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Putin enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Vladimir Putin, the Federal Government of Russia, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed in early February that President Vladimir Putin accepted President Xi Jinping's invitation for an official visit to China in the first half of 2026 during their videoconference, where both leaders outlined a "grand plan" to deepen strategic partnership amid global tensions. Recent reports from late March, including South China Morning Post, indicate Putin plans to travel immediately after U.S. President Trump's May 14-15 Beijing summit, positioning the trip in late May to advance bilateral energy, security, and Eurasian cooperation. This sequence of diplomatic signals drives trader consensus to 72.5% "Yes," reflecting strengthened Russia-China ties despite no formal May date announcement yet; potential shifts could arise from Ukraine developments or scheduling conflicts before May 31 resolution.

If Vladimir Putin visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Putin physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Putin enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Vladimir Putin, the Federal Government of Russia, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$4,168
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If Vladimir Putin visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Putin physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Putin enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Vladimir Putin, the Federal Government of Russia, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Putin visit China by May 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 73% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 73¢, the market collectively assigns a 73% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Putin visit China by May 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Putin visit China by May 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Putin visit China by May 31?" is 73% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 73% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Putin visit China by May 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.