Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a 27°C high in Buenos Aires on March 26 (32.5% implied probability), propelled by the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecast and ECMWF/GFS ensemble models projecting afternoon peaks of 26-29°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. This spread reflects high uncertainty from diurnal heating variability, potential sea breeze incursions cooling coastal areas, and urban heat island effects amplifying city readings at stations like Aeroparque. Historical March maxima average 28°C, but recent model runs show divergence, with 28°C (22.5%) viable if winds strengthen and 26°C (16.5%) if clouds persist; traders eye hourly SMN updates for resolution amid low precipitation risk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 26?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 26?
27°C 30%
28°C 25%
26°C 18%
25°C 11%
$12,559 Vol.
$12,559 Vol.
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
11%
26°C
18%
27°C
30%
28°C
25%
29°C
10%
30°C
6%
31°C
2%
32°C or higher
2%
27°C 30%
28°C 25%
26°C 18%
25°C 11%
$12,559 Vol.
$12,559 Vol.
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
11%
26°C
18%
27°C
30%
28°C
25%
29°C
10%
30°C
6%
31°C
2%
32°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a 27°C high in Buenos Aires on March 26 (32.5% implied probability), propelled by the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecast and ECMWF/GFS ensemble models projecting afternoon peaks of 26-29°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. This spread reflects high uncertainty from diurnal heating variability, potential sea breeze incursions cooling coastal areas, and urban heat island effects amplifying city readings at stations like Aeroparque. Historical March maxima average 28°C, but recent model runs show divergence, with 28°C (22.5%) viable if winds strengthen and 26°C (16.5%) if clouds persist; traders eye hourly SMN updates for resolution amid low precipitation risk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes