Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Istanbul's April 6 high temperature, centering around 15°C as the mean 2-meter air temperature projection amid early spring uncertainties. Recent model runs show a cool northerly flow over the Marmara region moderating highs via sea breeze effects from the Black Sea and Marmara Sea, with partial cloudiness tempering solar heating—favoring 15°C (31.5%) over slightly cooler 14°C (26.5%) if overcast persists or warmer 16°C (25%) under clearer skies. Historical April 6 climatology averages 15–16°C, but day-to-day variability from frontal passages creates the close contest. Watch Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and new 00Z ECMWF/GFS runs for shifts before resolution at official stations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Istanbul le 6 avril ?
La température la plus élevée à Istanbul le 6 avril ?
15°C 32%
14°C 25%
16°C 25%
17°C 21%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 avr. 2026
11°C ou moins
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
11%
14°C
25%
15°C
32%
16°C
25%
17°C
21%
18°C
11%
19°C
4%
20°C
1%
21°C ou plus
2%
15°C 32%
14°C 25%
16°C 25%
17°C 21%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 avr. 2026
11°C ou moins
$490 Vol.
1%
12°C
$1,212 Vol.
1%
13°C
$91 Vol.
11%
14°C
$103 Vol.
25%
15°C
$144 Vol.
32%
16°C
$115 Vol.
25%
17°C
$125 Vol.
21%
18°C
$71 Vol.
11%
19°C
$76 Vol.
4%
20°C
$94 Vol.
1%
21°C ou plus
$105 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Istanbul's April 6 high temperature, centering around 15°C as the mean 2-meter air temperature projection amid early spring uncertainties. Recent model runs show a cool northerly flow over the Marmara region moderating highs via sea breeze effects from the Black Sea and Marmara Sea, with partial cloudiness tempering solar heating—favoring 15°C (31.5%) over slightly cooler 14°C (26.5%) if overcast persists or warmer 16°C (25%) under clearer skies. Historical April 6 climatology averages 15–16°C, but day-to-day variability from frontal passages creates the close contest. Watch Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and new 00Z ECMWF/GFS runs for shifts before resolution at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$2,571Date de fin
6 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Istanbul's April 6 high temperature, centering around 15°C as the mean 2-meter air temperature projection amid early spring uncertainties. Recent model runs show a cool northerly flow over the Marmara region moderating highs via sea breeze effects from the Black Sea and Marmara Sea, with partial cloudiness tempering solar heating—favoring 15°C (31.5%) over slightly cooler 14°C (26.5%) if overcast persists or warmer 16°C (25%) under clearer skies. Historical April 6 climatology averages 15–16°C, but day-to-day variability from frontal passages creates the close contest. Watch Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and new 00Z ECMWF/GFS runs for shifts before resolution at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,571Date de fin
6 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Istanbul's April 6 high temperature, centering around 15°C as the mean 2-meter air temperature projection amid early spring uncertainties. Recent model runs show a cool northerly flow over the Marmara region moderating highs via sea breeze effects from the Black Sea and Marmara Sea, with partial cloudiness tempering solar heating—favoring 15°C (31.5%) over slightly cooler 14°C (26.5%) if overcast persists or warmer 16°C (25%) under clearer skies. Historical April 6 climatology averages 15–16°C, but day-to-day variability from frontal passages creates the close contest. Watch Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and new 00Z ECMWF/GFS runs for shifts before resolution at official stations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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