Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward 72-73°F (24%) over 70-71°F (22%) for Los Angeles' March 26 high temperature, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on 71-73°F amid a stable high-pressure ridge offshore. Persistent onshore breezes and morning marine layer—common in late March coastal LA—limit convective heating, capping peaks below 74°F and sidelining warmer bets like 74-75°F (15.5%). Historical data shows March 26 averages 70°F at LAX, with 2024's mild El Niño fade reducing outlier heat risks; key differentiator is afternoon clearing timing, where partial stratus persistence favors 70-71°F while full dissipation boosts 72-73°F odds. Upcoming 18Z model runs could shift sentiment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Los Angeles on March 26?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 26?
72-73°F 25%
70-71°F 21%
74-75°F 19%
76-77°F 7%
$18,319 Vol.
$18,319 Vol.
67°F or below
4%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
21%
72-73°F
25%
74-75°F
18%
76-77°F
7%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
1%
72-73°F 25%
70-71°F 21%
74-75°F 19%
76-77°F 7%
$18,319 Vol.
$18,319 Vol.
67°F or below
4%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
21%
72-73°F
25%
74-75°F
18%
76-77°F
7%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward 72-73°F (24%) over 70-71°F (22%) for Los Angeles' March 26 high temperature, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on 71-73°F amid a stable high-pressure ridge offshore. Persistent onshore breezes and morning marine layer—common in late March coastal LA—limit convective heating, capping peaks below 74°F and sidelining warmer bets like 74-75°F (15.5%). Historical data shows March 26 averages 70°F at LAX, with 2024's mild El Niño fade reducing outlier heat risks; key differentiator is afternoon clearing timing, where partial stratus persistence favors 70-71°F while full dissipation boosts 72-73°F odds. Upcoming 18Z model runs could shift sentiment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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