Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Milan high of 13°C (35.5% implied probability), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 12-14°C under a mild Atlantic ridge influencing northern Italy. Recent model runs from March 24-25 indicate a slight cooldown from prior warmer outlooks, with southerly winds tempering highs amid spring transitional weather patterns. ARPA Lombardia observations show current temperatures tracking 1-2°C below seasonal norms, aligning historical late-March averages near 13°C. High-resolution updates expected by March 25 could refine these odds, but low pressure nearby caps upside risks above 15°C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Milan on March 26?
Highest temperature in Milan on March 26?
13°C 36%
12°C 24%
14°C 24%
15°C 8%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
3%
10°C
4%
11°C
7%
12°C
24%
13°C
36%
14°C
24%
15°C
8%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
1%
13°C 36%
12°C 24%
14°C 24%
15°C 8%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
3%
10°C
4%
11°C
7%
12°C
24%
13°C
36%
14°C
24%
15°C
8%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Milan high of 13°C (35.5% implied probability), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 12-14°C under a mild Atlantic ridge influencing northern Italy. Recent model runs from March 24-25 indicate a slight cooldown from prior warmer outlooks, with southerly winds tempering highs amid spring transitional weather patterns. ARPA Lombardia observations show current temperatures tracking 1-2°C below seasonal norms, aligning historical late-March averages near 13°C. High-resolution updates expected by March 25 could refine these odds, but low pressure nearby caps upside risks above 15°C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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