Trader consensus tilts toward 10°C (39.5%) as the highest temperature in Paris on March 26, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts peaking in the 9-11°C range, with Météo-France outlooks aligning closely amid a tightly matched race against 9°C (32%). Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover from a weakening northerly flow, which tempers solar insolation despite mild high-pressure ridging; recent 12Z runs nudged probabilities upward from cooler biases seen 48 hours ago. Paris-Montsouris station data historically averages 11°C late March, but this year's La Niña-influenced cool anomaly adds uncertainty, with final resolution hinging on evening updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Paris on March 26?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 26?
10°C 40%
9°C 32%
11°C 14%
8°C 8%
$19,643 Vol.
$19,643 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
2%
8°C
8%
9°C
32%
10°C
40%
11°C
14%
12°C
4%
13°C
2%
14°C or higher
1%
10°C 40%
9°C 32%
11°C 14%
8°C 8%
$19,643 Vol.
$19,643 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
2%
8°C
8%
9°C
32%
10°C
40%
11°C
14%
12°C
4%
13°C
2%
14°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus tilts toward 10°C (39.5%) as the highest temperature in Paris on March 26, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts peaking in the 9-11°C range, with Météo-France outlooks aligning closely amid a tightly matched race against 9°C (32%). Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover from a weakening northerly flow, which tempers solar insolation despite mild high-pressure ridging; recent 12Z runs nudged probabilities upward from cooler biases seen 48 hours ago. Paris-Montsouris station data historically averages 11°C late March, but this year's La Niña-influenced cool anomaly adds uncertainty, with final resolution hinging on evening updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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