Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-100% implied probability to a 27°C high temperature in Shenzhen on April 2, driven by official observations at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport peaking at 81°F (27°C) around 4 p.m. local time amid persistent cloud cover and high humidity that limited solar heating. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) short-range forecasts, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles updated early April 2, projected this exact cap under overcast conditions typical for early April climatology, where average highs hover near 26°C. With sunset nearing and stable low-level moisture suppressing further warming, resolution appears locked; only an improbable sudden clearing of clouds for late-afternoon insolation could push toward 29°C or higher.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 2?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 2?
27°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$223,089 Vol.
$223,089 Vol.
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$223,089 Vol.
$223,089 Vol.
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 3:46 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-100% implied probability to a 27°C high temperature in Shenzhen on April 2, driven by official observations at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport peaking at 81°F (27°C) around 4 p.m. local time amid persistent cloud cover and high humidity that limited solar heating. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) short-range forecasts, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles updated early April 2, projected this exact cap under overcast conditions typical for early April climatology, where average highs hover near 26°C. With sunset nearing and stable low-level moisture suppressing further warming, resolution appears locked; only an improbable sudden clearing of clouds for late-afternoon insolation could push toward 29°C or higher.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes