Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, corroborated by Israel's Meteorological Service, converge on a daytime high near 18°C in Tel Aviv on March 22, fueling its leading 36.5% implied probability amid mild spring conditions. March historical averages hover around 19°C, but a lingering low-pressure system over the eastern Mediterranean suppresses temperatures, with northerly winds and coastal sea breezes capping peaks below 20°C. Recent model runs overnight shifted odds toward cooler outcomes—boosting 17°C to 24%—as upper-air analysis shows stable subsidence rather than heat advection, while trader consensus discounts rare warmer spikes above 23°C at just 5.5%. Key watch: IMS 12-hour update expected soon.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 22?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 22?
18°C 37%
17°C 24%
19°C 22%
16°C 7%
13°C or below
2%
14°C
3%
15°C
6%
16°C
7%
17°C
24%
18°C
37%
19°C
22%
20°C
6%
21°C
3%
22°C
3%
23°C or higher
6%
18°C 37%
17°C 24%
19°C 22%
16°C 7%
13°C or below
2%
14°C
3%
15°C
6%
16°C
7%
17°C
24%
18°C
37%
19°C
22%
20°C
6%
21°C
3%
22°C
3%
23°C or higher
6%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ben Gurion Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, corroborated by Israel's Meteorological Service, converge on a daytime high near 18°C in Tel Aviv on March 22, fueling its leading 36.5% implied probability amid mild spring conditions. March historical averages hover around 19°C, but a lingering low-pressure system over the eastern Mediterranean suppresses temperatures, with northerly winds and coastal sea breezes capping peaks below 20°C. Recent model runs overnight shifted odds toward cooler outcomes—boosting 17°C to 24%—as upper-air analysis shows stable subsidence rather than heat advection, while trader consensus discounts rare warmer spikes above 23°C at just 5.5%. Key watch: IMS 12-hour update expected soon.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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