Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 39.6% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026, with one 25 basis point cut next at 26.5%, reflecting hawkish repricing after March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the largest monthly jump (0.9%) since 2022—driven by energy shocks from Middle East tensions and elevated oil prices. Robust March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, dropping unemployment to 4.3%, while the Federal Reserve's March FOMC dot plot median still envisions just one cut to 3.4% by year-end amid revised-higher 2.7% core PCE inflation forecasts. Minutes from that meeting underscored policy caution despite war uncertainties, aligning markets closer to "higher for longer." Traders eye the April 28-29 FOMC for further signals, with futures implying a near-certain hold.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया0 (0 बीपीएस) 39.6%
1 (25 बीपीएस) 27%
2 (50 बीपीएस) 16%
3 (75 बीपीएस) 8%
$19,156,351 वॉल्यूम
$19,156,351 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0 (0 बीपीएस)
40%
1 (25 बीपीएस)
27%
2 (50 बीपीएस)
16%
3 (75 बीपीएस)
8%
4 (100 बीपीएस)
4%
5 (125 बीपीएस)
1%
6 (150 बीपीएस)
1%
7 (175 बीपीएस)
<1%
8 (200 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
<1%
9 (225 बीपीएस)
<1%
10 (250 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
<1%
11 (275 बीपीएस)
<1%
12+ (300+ बीपीएस)
1%
0 (0 बीपीएस) 39.6%
1 (25 बीपीएस) 27%
2 (50 बीपीएस) 16%
3 (75 बीपीएस) 8%
$19,156,351 वॉल्यूम
$19,156,351 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0 (0 बीपीएस)
$3,192,034 वॉल्यूम
40%
1 (25 बीपीएस)
$1,038,739 वॉल्यूम
27%
2 (50 बीपीएस)
$1,011,293 वॉल्यूम
16%
3 (75 बीपीएस)
$931,374 वॉल्यूम
8%
4 (100 बीपीएस)
$963,399 वॉल्यूम
4%
5 (125 बीपीएस)
$1,054,524 वॉल्यूम
1%
6 (150 बीपीएस)
$2,091,068 वॉल्यूम
1%
7 (175 बीपीएस)
$947,297 वॉल्यूम
<1%
8 (200 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
$1,220,827 वॉल्यूम
<1%
9 (225 बीपीएस)
$1,197,632 वॉल्यूम
<1%
10 (250 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
$1,683,571 वॉल्यूम
<1%
11 (275 बीपीएस)
$1,993,818 वॉल्यूम
<1%
12+ (300+ बीपीएस)
$1,831,101 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 39.6% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026, with one 25 basis point cut next at 26.5%, reflecting hawkish repricing after March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the largest monthly jump (0.9%) since 2022—driven by energy shocks from Middle East tensions and elevated oil prices. Robust March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, dropping unemployment to 4.3%, while the Federal Reserve's March FOMC dot plot median still envisions just one cut to 3.4% by year-end amid revised-higher 2.7% core PCE inflation forecasts. Minutes from that meeting underscored policy caution despite war uncertainties, aligning markets closer to "higher for longer." Traders eye the April 28-29 FOMC for further signals, with futures implying a near-certain hold.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$19,156,351समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 39.6% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026, with one 25 basis point cut next at 26.5%, reflecting hawkish repricing after March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the largest monthly jump (0.9%) since 2022—driven by energy shocks from Middle East tensions and elevated oil prices. Robust March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, dropping unemployment to 4.3%, while the Federal Reserve's March FOMC dot plot median still envisions just one cut to 3.4% by year-end amid revised-higher 2.7% core PCE inflation forecasts. Minutes from that meeting underscored policy caution despite war uncertainties, aligning markets closer to "higher for longer." Traders eye the April 28-29 FOMC for further signals, with futures implying a near-certain hold.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
वॉल्यूम
$19,156,351समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 39.6% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026, with one 25 basis point cut next at 26.5%, reflecting hawkish repricing after March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the largest monthly jump (0.9%) since 2022—driven by energy shocks from Middle East tensions and elevated oil prices. Robust March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, dropping unemployment to 4.3%, while the Federal Reserve's March FOMC dot plot median still envisions just one cut to 3.4% by year-end amid revised-higher 2.7% core PCE inflation forecasts. Minutes from that meeting underscored policy caution despite war uncertainties, aligning markets closer to "higher for longer." Traders eye the April 28-29 FOMC for further signals, with futures implying a near-certain hold.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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