Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.9% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, leading ahead of one cut (25 bps) at 26.5%, reflecting hawkish sentiment amid sticky inflation and a resilient labor market. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike from Middle East tensions and oil volatility, while core CPI held at 2.6% YoY. Unemployment dipped to 4.3% with 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions, signaling balanced conditions. The March FOMC dot plot median projects a 3.4% end-2026 fed funds rate (implying one cut from 3.625%), but minutes highlighted upside inflation risks from geopolitics and tariffs. Markets anticipate a hold at the April 28-29 meeting.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया0 (0 बीपीएस) 38.9%
1 (25 बीपीएस) 27%
2 (50 बीपीएस) 16%
3 (75 बीपीएस) 9%
$19,281,404 वॉल्यूम
$19,281,404 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0 (0 बीपीएस)
39%
1 (25 बीपीएस)
27%
2 (50 बीपीएस)
16%
3 (75 बीपीएस)
9%
4 (100 बीपीएस)
4%
5 (125 बीपीएस)
1%
6 (150 बीपीएस)
1%
7 (175 बीपीएस)
<1%
8 (200 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
<1%
9 (225 बीपीएस)
<1%
10 (250 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
<1%
11 (275 बीपीएस)
<1%
12+ (300+ बीपीएस)
1%
0 (0 बीपीएस) 38.9%
1 (25 बीपीएस) 27%
2 (50 बीपीएस) 16%
3 (75 बीपीएस) 9%
$19,281,404 वॉल्यूम
$19,281,404 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0 (0 बीपीएस)
$3,200,730 वॉल्यूम
39%
1 (25 बीपीएस)
$1,039,733 वॉल्यूम
27%
2 (50 बीपीएस)
$1,011,564 वॉल्यूम
16%
3 (75 बीपीएस)
$934,716 वॉल्यूम
9%
4 (100 बीपीएस)
$966,790 वॉल्यूम
4%
5 (125 बीपीएस)
$1,063,499 वॉल्यूम
1%
6 (150 बीपीएस)
$2,103,309 वॉल्यूम
1%
7 (175 बीपीएस)
$953,372 वॉल्यूम
<1%
8 (200 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
$1,222,805 वॉल्यूम
<1%
9 (225 बीपीएस)
$1,216,984 वॉल्यूम
<1%
10 (250 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
$1,705,539 वॉल्यूम
<1%
11 (275 बीपीएस)
$2,027,659 वॉल्यूम
<1%
12+ (300+ बीपीएस)
$1,835,190 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.9% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, leading ahead of one cut (25 bps) at 26.5%, reflecting hawkish sentiment amid sticky inflation and a resilient labor market. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike from Middle East tensions and oil volatility, while core CPI held at 2.6% YoY. Unemployment dipped to 4.3% with 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions, signaling balanced conditions. The March FOMC dot plot median projects a 3.4% end-2026 fed funds rate (implying one cut from 3.625%), but minutes highlighted upside inflation risks from geopolitics and tariffs. Markets anticipate a hold at the April 28-29 meeting.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$19,281,404समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.9% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, leading ahead of one cut (25 bps) at 26.5%, reflecting hawkish sentiment amid sticky inflation and a resilient labor market. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike from Middle East tensions and oil volatility, while core CPI held at 2.6% YoY. Unemployment dipped to 4.3% with 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions, signaling balanced conditions. The March FOMC dot plot median projects a 3.4% end-2026 fed funds rate (implying one cut from 3.625%), but minutes highlighted upside inflation risks from geopolitics and tariffs. Markets anticipate a hold at the April 28-29 meeting.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
वॉल्यूम
$19,281,404समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.9% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, leading ahead of one cut (25 bps) at 26.5%, reflecting hawkish sentiment amid sticky inflation and a resilient labor market. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike from Middle East tensions and oil volatility, while core CPI held at 2.6% YoY. Unemployment dipped to 4.3% with 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions, signaling balanced conditions. The March FOMC dot plot median projects a 3.4% end-2026 fed funds rate (implying one cut from 3.625%), but minutes highlighted upside inflation risks from geopolitics and tariffs. Markets anticipate a hold at the April 28-29 meeting.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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