Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability of retaining Minnesota's 5th Congressional District, driven by its extreme D+32 partisan voting index—the 13th most Democratic nationwide—and incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar's dominant position. With the August 11 primary approaching, Omar holds over $1.1 million in cash on hand versus challengers Julie Le and Latonya Reeves' negligible resources, echoing her 74.4% 2024 general election win. GOP primary contenders, including 2024 nominee Dalia al-Aqidi, show limited fundraising edge amid historical double-digit losses. Cook Political rates it Solid Democratic. Scenarios challenging this include a bruising Democratic primary upset, Omar scandal, or national Republican wave flipping urban strongholds before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाMN-05 House Election Winner
MN-05 House Election Winner
$32,607 वॉल्यूम
$32,607 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$32,607 वॉल्यूम
$32,607 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
$15,039 वॉल्यूम
94%
Republican Party
$17,568 वॉल्यूम
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability of retaining Minnesota's 5th Congressional District, driven by its extreme D+32 partisan voting index—the 13th most Democratic nationwide—and incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar's dominant position. With the August 11 primary approaching, Omar holds over $1.1 million in cash on hand versus challengers Julie Le and Latonya Reeves' negligible resources, echoing her 74.4% 2024 general election win. GOP primary contenders, including 2024 nominee Dalia al-Aqidi, show limited fundraising edge amid historical double-digit losses. Cook Political rates it Solid Democratic. Scenarios challenging this include a bruising Democratic primary upset, Omar scandal, or national Republican wave flipping urban strongholds before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$32,607समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability of retaining Minnesota's 5th Congressional District, driven by its extreme D+32 partisan voting index—the 13th most Democratic nationwide—and incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar's dominant position. With the August 11 primary approaching, Omar holds over $1.1 million in cash on hand versus challengers Julie Le and Latonya Reeves' negligible resources, echoing her 74.4% 2024 general election win. GOP primary contenders, including 2024 nominee Dalia al-Aqidi, show limited fundraising edge amid historical double-digit losses. Cook Political rates it Solid Democratic. Scenarios challenging this include a bruising Democratic primary upset, Omar scandal, or national Republican wave flipping urban strongholds before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$32,607समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability of retaining Minnesota's 5th Congressional District, driven by its extreme D+32 partisan voting index—the 13th most Democratic nationwide—and incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar's dominant position. With the August 11 primary approaching, Omar holds over $1.1 million in cash on hand versus challengers Julie Le and Latonya Reeves' negligible resources, echoing her 74.4% 2024 general election win. GOP primary contenders, including 2024 nominee Dalia al-Aqidi, show limited fundraising edge amid historical double-digit losses. Cook Political rates it Solid Democratic. Scenarios challenging this include a bruising Democratic primary upset, Omar scandal, or national Republican wave flipping urban strongholds before the November 3 general election.
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