Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for any Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of at least 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making US landfall before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events and subdued outlooks for the remaining 2026 season. Only four have occurred since reliable records began in 1851 (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018), with none since 2018 despite active recent years. The 2025 Atlantic season ended near-normal per NOAA, producing no Cat 5 US landfalls. Early 2026 forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal activity (13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 majors), tempered by emerging El Niño conditions (61% NOAA chance by May-July), which boost upper-level wind shear inhibiting intensification. NOAA's May outlook and June 1 season start could refine probabilities amid model uncertainties.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या कोई श्रेणी 5 का तूफान 2027 से पहले अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
क्या कोई श्रेणी 5 का तूफान 2027 से पहले अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
हाँ
$131,442 वॉल्यूम
$131,442 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$131,442 वॉल्यूम
$131,442 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for any Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of at least 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making US landfall before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events and subdued outlooks for the remaining 2026 season. Only four have occurred since reliable records began in 1851 (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018), with none since 2018 despite active recent years. The 2025 Atlantic season ended near-normal per NOAA, producing no Cat 5 US landfalls. Early 2026 forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal activity (13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 majors), tempered by emerging El Niño conditions (61% NOAA chance by May-July), which boost upper-level wind shear inhibiting intensification. NOAA's May outlook and June 1 season start could refine probabilities amid model uncertainties.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$131,442समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for any Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of at least 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making US landfall before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events and subdued outlooks for the remaining 2026 season. Only four have occurred since reliable records began in 1851 (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018), with none since 2018 despite active recent years. The 2025 Atlantic season ended near-normal per NOAA, producing no Cat 5 US landfalls. Early 2026 forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal activity (13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 majors), tempered by emerging El Niño conditions (61% NOAA chance by May-July), which boost upper-level wind shear inhibiting intensification. NOAA's May outlook and June 1 season start could refine probabilities amid model uncertainties.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
वॉल्यूम
$131,442समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for any Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of at least 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making US landfall before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events and subdued outlooks for the remaining 2026 season. Only four have occurred since reliable records began in 1851 (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018), with none since 2018 despite active recent years. The 2025 Atlantic season ended near-normal per NOAA, producing no Cat 5 US landfalls. Early 2026 forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal activity (13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 majors), tempered by emerging El Niño conditions (61% NOAA chance by May-July), which boost upper-level wind shear inhibiting intensification. NOAA's May outlook and June 1 season start could refine probabilities amid model uncertainties.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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