US-Iran tensions have escalated with US airstrikes targeting military installations on Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export hub handling over 90% of its crude shipments, most recently on April 7 when over 50 sites were hit but energy infrastructure was explicitly spared to avoid global oil market disruptions. Iranian assessments confirm the oil terminal remains operational, with exports even rising despite the conflict, as Tehran reinforces the island with IRGC troops, air defense systems, and missile launchers amid a fragile ceasefire. Trader consensus reflects low odds of a direct kinetic strike on the terminal, given US restraint on economic targets, though Trump's Hormuz blockade threats and potential ceasefire collapse could prompt further military action before resolution deadlines.