No leads at 74.5–76% implied probability because historical records from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and global infrasound networks show 5 kt TNT-equivalent airbursts occur only once every several years on average, placing any single calendar year well below 30% likelihood. As of late August 2026, roughly eight months have elapsed without a qualifying bolide on the JPL Fireball repository, and ongoing Sentry and Scout monitoring list no catalogued near-Earth objects on impact trajectories capable of reaching the 5 kt threshold. Early-2026 clusters of brighter fireballs registered energies in the 0.25 kt range, below resolution criteria, while refined orbital solutions have further reduced residual risk from undetected meter-scale impactors. Remaining resolution hinges on continued surveillance updates through December.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSciopero di meteore da 5kt nel 2026?
Sciopero di meteore da 5kt nel 2026?
Sì
26% probabilità
$312,627 Vol.
$312,627 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
26% probabilità
$312,627 Vol.
$312,627 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No leads at 74.5–76% implied probability because historical records from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and global infrasound networks show 5 kt TNT-equivalent airbursts occur only once every several years on average, placing any single calendar year well below 30% likelihood. As of late August 2026, roughly eight months have elapsed without a qualifying bolide on the JPL Fireball repository, and ongoing Sentry and Scout monitoring list no catalogued near-Earth objects on impact trajectories capable of reaching the 5 kt threshold. Early-2026 clusters of brighter fireballs registered energies in the 0.25 kt range, below resolution criteria, while refined orbital solutions have further reduced residual risk from undetected meter-scale impactors. Remaining resolution hinges on continued surveillance updates through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$312,627Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No leads at 74.5–76% implied probability because historical records from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and global infrasound networks show 5 kt TNT-equivalent airbursts occur only once every several years on average, placing any single calendar year well below 30% likelihood. As of late August 2026, roughly eight months have elapsed without a qualifying bolide on the JPL Fireball repository, and ongoing Sentry and Scout monitoring list no catalogued near-Earth objects on impact trajectories capable of reaching the 5 kt threshold. Early-2026 clusters of brighter fireballs registered energies in the 0.25 kt range, below resolution criteria, while refined orbital solutions have further reduced residual risk from undetected meter-scale impactors. Remaining resolution hinges on continued surveillance updates through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$312,627Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...No leads at 74.5–76% implied probability because historical records from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and global infrasound networks show 5 kt TNT-equivalent airbursts occur only once every several years on average, placing any single calendar year well below 30% likelihood. As of late August 2026, roughly eight months have elapsed without a qualifying bolide on the JPL Fireball repository, and ongoing Sentry and Scout monitoring list no catalogued near-Earth objects on impact trajectories capable of reaching the 5 kt threshold. Early-2026 clusters of brighter fireballs registered energies in the 0.25 kt range, below resolution criteria, while refined orbital solutions have further reduced residual risk from undetected meter-scale impactors. Remaining resolution hinges on continued surveillance updates through December.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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