Current monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and JPL’s Sentry system shows no known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5-kiloton airburst on a collision trajectory for 2026, with upcoming close approaches such as 2026 PK remaining millions of miles distant. Small, undetected meter-scale meteoroids can generate 5 kt events when they explode in the atmosphere, yet historical frequency data indicate these occur only a few times per decade on average. Traders therefore assign a 69.5% implied probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of confirmed threats, ongoing observational completeness for larger bodies, and the statistical rarity of an undetected impactor delivering that energy threshold within a single calendar year.