Persistent inflation well above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by Middle East supply shocks and resilient economic data, has shifted trader sentiment toward “Other” outcomes at 59% for the June-September FOMC sequence. The June and July meetings both delivered holds at the 3.50-3.75% target range, supporting the 41.5% Pause–Pause–Pause probability, while the near-zero odds on Pause–Pause–Cut reflect limited expectations for easing. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s stripped-down June statement removed forward guidance, and updated projections lifted the 2026 median funds rate to 3.8% with nine participants seeing at least one hike by year-end. Markets now price a material chance of a September tightening, underscoring uncertainty ahead of the September 15-16 decision and upcoming inflation releases.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoOther 59%
Pause–Pause–Pause 42%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$823,045 Vol.
$823,045 Vol.
15 set 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
42%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
59%
Other 59%
Pause–Pause–Pause 42%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$823,045 Vol.
$823,045 Vol.
15 set 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$315,348 Vol.
42%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$95,796 Vol.
1%
Other
$356,025 Vol.
59%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation well above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by Middle East supply shocks and resilient economic data, has shifted trader sentiment toward “Other” outcomes at 59% for the June-September FOMC sequence. The June and July meetings both delivered holds at the 3.50-3.75% target range, supporting the 41.5% Pause–Pause–Pause probability, while the near-zero odds on Pause–Pause–Cut reflect limited expectations for easing. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s stripped-down June statement removed forward guidance, and updated projections lifted the 2026 median funds rate to 3.8% with nine participants seeing at least one hike by year-end. Markets now price a material chance of a September tightening, underscoring uncertainty ahead of the September 15-16 decision and upcoming inflation releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$823,045Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation well above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by Middle East supply shocks and resilient economic data, has shifted trader sentiment toward “Other” outcomes at 59% for the June-September FOMC sequence. The June and July meetings both delivered holds at the 3.50-3.75% target range, supporting the 41.5% Pause–Pause–Pause probability, while the near-zero odds on Pause–Pause–Cut reflect limited expectations for easing. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s stripped-down June statement removed forward guidance, and updated projections lifted the 2026 median funds rate to 3.8% with nine participants seeing at least one hike by year-end. Markets now price a material chance of a September tightening, underscoring uncertainty ahead of the September 15-16 decision and upcoming inflation releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$823,045Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation well above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by Middle East supply shocks and resilient economic data, has shifted trader sentiment toward “Other” outcomes at 59% for the June-September FOMC sequence. The June and July meetings both delivered holds at the 3.50-3.75% target range, supporting the 41.5% Pause–Pause–Pause probability, while the near-zero odds on Pause–Pause–Cut reflect limited expectations for easing. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s stripped-down June statement removed forward guidance, and updated projections lifted the 2026 median funds rate to 3.8% with nine participants seeing at least one hike by year-end. Markets now price a material chance of a September tightening, underscoring uncertainty ahead of the September 15-16 decision and upcoming inflation releases.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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