Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean faces limited opposition in Florida’s 4th congressional district, a seat he won with 57 percent in 2024 after the district supported Donald Trump by double digits. The district’s consistent Republican performance, combined with Bean’s established fundraising and name recognition, underpins the strong trader preference for a GOP hold. Democratic primary voters on August 18 will select among LaShonda Holloway, Michael Kirwan, and Brittney Robinson, yet no challenger has emerged with the profile or resources to threaten the general-election outcome. Midterm dynamics and national conditions could still influence turnout, but the current balance of structural advantages and candidate positioning keeps Republican probabilities elevated while leaving modest room for Democratic improvement if the nominee consolidates support quickly after the primary.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoFL-04 House Election Winner
FL-04 House Election Winner
$21,581 Vol.
$21,581 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
80%
Democratic Party
21%
$21,581 Vol.
$21,581 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
$13,263 Vol.
80%
Democratic Party
$8,318 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean faces limited opposition in Florida’s 4th congressional district, a seat he won with 57 percent in 2024 after the district supported Donald Trump by double digits. The district’s consistent Republican performance, combined with Bean’s established fundraising and name recognition, underpins the strong trader preference for a GOP hold. Democratic primary voters on August 18 will select among LaShonda Holloway, Michael Kirwan, and Brittney Robinson, yet no challenger has emerged with the profile or resources to threaten the general-election outcome. Midterm dynamics and national conditions could still influence turnout, but the current balance of structural advantages and candidate positioning keeps Republican probabilities elevated while leaving modest room for Democratic improvement if the nominee consolidates support quickly after the primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$21,581Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean faces limited opposition in Florida’s 4th congressional district, a seat he won with 57 percent in 2024 after the district supported Donald Trump by double digits. The district’s consistent Republican performance, combined with Bean’s established fundraising and name recognition, underpins the strong trader preference for a GOP hold. Democratic primary voters on August 18 will select among LaShonda Holloway, Michael Kirwan, and Brittney Robinson, yet no challenger has emerged with the profile or resources to threaten the general-election outcome. Midterm dynamics and national conditions could still influence turnout, but the current balance of structural advantages and candidate positioning keeps Republican probabilities elevated while leaving modest room for Democratic improvement if the nominee consolidates support quickly after the primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,581Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean faces limited opposition in Florida’s 4th congressional district, a seat he won with 57 percent in 2024 after the district supported Donald Trump by double digits. The district’s consistent Republican performance, combined with Bean’s established fundraising and name recognition, underpins the strong trader preference for a GOP hold. Democratic primary voters on August 18 will select among LaShonda Holloway, Michael Kirwan, and Brittney Robinson, yet no challenger has emerged with the profile or resources to threaten the general-election outcome. Midterm dynamics and national conditions could still influence turnout, but the current balance of structural advantages and candidate positioning keeps Republican probabilities elevated while leaving modest room for Democratic improvement if the nominee consolidates support quickly after the primary.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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