Elevated 30-year Treasury yields near 5.27% as of early September 2026 stem primarily from a rising term premium driven by record fiscal supply, with federal debt exceeding $40 trillion and heavy Treasury issuance competing against corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure. Persistent inflation pressures, fueled by oil prices above $90 per barrel amid Middle East tensions, have prompted Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to signal potential rate hikes at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting if data fails to moderate, with markets pricing modest tightening odds. Recent yield gains of over 40 basis points year-to-date reflect resilient growth expectations and reduced demand for long-duration assets, though upcoming CPI and employment releases could shift the market-implied rate path and support lower yields if disinflation accelerates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
30 dic 2026
Sotto il 5,20%
50%
Sotto il 5,15%
50%
Sotto il 5,10%
50%
Sotto 5,05%
50%
Sotto il 5,00%
50%
Sotto il 4,95%
50%
Sotto il 4,90%
49%
Sotto il 4,80%
48%
Sotto il 4,60%
47%
$0.00 Vol.
Sotto il 5,20%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto il 5,15%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto il 5,10%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto 5,05%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto il 5,00%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto il 4,95%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto il 4,90%
$0 Vol.
49%
Sotto il 4,80%
$0 Vol.
48%
Sotto il 4,60%
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Elevated 30-year Treasury yields near 5.27% as of early September 2026 stem primarily from a rising term premium driven by record fiscal supply, with federal debt exceeding $40 trillion and heavy Treasury issuance competing against corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure. Persistent inflation pressures, fueled by oil prices above $90 per barrel amid Middle East tensions, have prompted Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to signal potential rate hikes at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting if data fails to moderate, with markets pricing modest tightening odds. Recent yield gains of over 40 basis points year-to-date reflect resilient growth expectations and reduced demand for long-duration assets, though upcoming CPI and employment releases could shift the market-implied rate path and support lower yields if disinflation accelerates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Elevated 30-year Treasury yields near 5.27% as of early September 2026 stem primarily from a rising term premium driven by record fiscal supply, with federal debt exceeding $40 trillion and heavy Treasury issuance competing against corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure. Persistent inflation pressures, fueled by oil prices above $90 per barrel amid Middle East tensions, have prompted Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to signal potential rate hikes at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting if data fails to moderate, with markets pricing modest tightening odds. Recent yield gains of over 40 basis points year-to-date reflect resilient growth expectations and reduced demand for long-duration assets, though upcoming CPI and employment releases could shift the market-implied rate path and support lower yields if disinflation accelerates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Elevated 30-year Treasury yields near 5.27% as of early September 2026 stem primarily from a rising term premium driven by record fiscal supply, with federal debt exceeding $40 trillion and heavy Treasury issuance competing against corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure. Persistent inflation pressures, fueled by oil prices above $90 per barrel amid Middle East tensions, have prompted Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to signal potential rate hikes at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting if data fails to moderate, with markets pricing modest tightening odds. Recent yield gains of over 40 basis points year-to-date reflect resilient growth expectations and reduced demand for long-duration assets, though upcoming CPI and employment releases could shift the market-implied rate path and support lower yields if disinflation accelerates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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