Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, trader consensus favors two countries at 55% implied probability, reflecting verified Israeli airstrikes in Iran—such as wide-scale IDF operations targeting Tehran and other infrastructure sites on April 4 and 7—and intensified action against Hezbollah in Lebanon, including the largest wave of strikes since the war's start on April 8 and over 150 targets hit in southern Lebanon as of April 13-15. These developments anchor the multi-front escalation without confirmed expansion to additional nations like Yemen or Syria, despite Houthi missile launches toward Israel. The 38.5% odds on three countries highlight uncertainty in the remaining April window, with potential for diplomatic ceasefire talks or proxy responses to tip balances, though no new verifiable strikes beyond these fronts have occurred in the past week.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoContro quanti paesi Israele condurrà un'azione militare ad aprile?
Contro quanti paesi Israele condurrà un'azione militare ad aprile?
2 58%
3 37%
≥4 8%
$101,404 Vol.
$101,404 Vol.
30 apr 2026
2
58%
3
37%
≥4
8%
2 58%
3 37%
≥4 8%
$101,404 Vol.
$101,404 Vol.
30 apr 2026
2
$24,336 Vol.
58%
3
$30,032 Vol.
37%
≥4
$39,570 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, trader consensus favors two countries at 55% implied probability, reflecting verified Israeli airstrikes in Iran—such as wide-scale IDF operations targeting Tehran and other infrastructure sites on April 4 and 7—and intensified action against Hezbollah in Lebanon, including the largest wave of strikes since the war's start on April 8 and over 150 targets hit in southern Lebanon as of April 13-15. These developments anchor the multi-front escalation without confirmed expansion to additional nations like Yemen or Syria, despite Houthi missile launches toward Israel. The 38.5% odds on three countries highlight uncertainty in the remaining April window, with potential for diplomatic ceasefire talks or proxy responses to tip balances, though no new verifiable strikes beyond these fronts have occurred in the past week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$101,404Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, trader consensus favors two countries at 55% implied probability, reflecting verified Israeli airstrikes in Iran—such as wide-scale IDF operations targeting Tehran and other infrastructure sites on April 4 and 7—and intensified action against Hezbollah in Lebanon, including the largest wave of strikes since the war's start on April 8 and over 150 targets hit in southern Lebanon as of April 13-15. These developments anchor the multi-front escalation without confirmed expansion to additional nations like Yemen or Syria, despite Houthi missile launches toward Israel. The 38.5% odds on three countries highlight uncertainty in the remaining April window, with potential for diplomatic ceasefire talks or proxy responses to tip balances, though no new verifiable strikes beyond these fronts have occurred in the past week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$101,404Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, trader consensus favors two countries at 55% implied probability, reflecting verified Israeli airstrikes in Iran—such as wide-scale IDF operations targeting Tehran and other infrastructure sites on April 4 and 7—and intensified action against Hezbollah in Lebanon, including the largest wave of strikes since the war's start on April 8 and over 150 targets hit in southern Lebanon as of April 13-15. These developments anchor the multi-front escalation without confirmed expansion to additional nations like Yemen or Syria, despite Houthi missile launches toward Israel. The 38.5% odds on three countries highlight uncertainty in the remaining April window, with potential for diplomatic ceasefire talks or proxy responses to tip balances, though no new verifiable strikes beyond these fronts have occurred in the past week.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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