Incumbent KMT mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds an 83.5% implied probability in the Keelung mayoral market ahead of Taiwan’s November 28, 2026 local elections, while DPP challenger Tung Tzu-wei sits at 7.5%. Traders cite Hsieh’s 2022 victory, survival of a 2024 recall vote, and consistent polling leads—though a late-July survey showed the margin narrowing to roughly 2.5 points with high undecided shares. KMT’s broad fielding of candidates across most races and the absence of major recent scandals or shifts in voter blocs reinforce the current pricing. Resolution hinges on the official vote count, with potential movement possible from late-campaign developments or turnout patterns in this closely watched northern Taiwan contest.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
NUOVO
30 giu 2027
Hsieh Kuo-liang
84%
Tung Tzu-wei
7%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 giu 2027
Hsieh Kuo-liang
$835 Vol.
84%
Tung Tzu-wei
$251 Vol.
7%
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Incumbent KMT mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds an 83.5% implied probability in the Keelung mayoral market ahead of Taiwan’s November 28, 2026 local elections, while DPP challenger Tung Tzu-wei sits at 7.5%. Traders cite Hsieh’s 2022 victory, survival of a 2024 recall vote, and consistent polling leads—though a late-July survey showed the margin narrowing to roughly 2.5 points with high undecided shares. KMT’s broad fielding of candidates across most races and the absence of major recent scandals or shifts in voter blocs reinforce the current pricing. Resolution hinges on the official vote count, with potential movement possible from late-campaign developments or turnout patterns in this closely watched northern Taiwan contest.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ET
Volume
$1,086Data di fine
28 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Incumbent KMT mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds an 83.5% implied probability in the Keelung mayoral market ahead of Taiwan’s November 28, 2026 local elections, while DPP challenger Tung Tzu-wei sits at 7.5%. Traders cite Hsieh’s 2022 victory, survival of a 2024 recall vote, and consistent polling leads—though a late-July survey showed the margin narrowing to roughly 2.5 points with high undecided shares. KMT’s broad fielding of candidates across most races and the absence of major recent scandals or shifts in voter blocs reinforce the current pricing. Resolution hinges on the official vote count, with potential movement possible from late-campaign developments or turnout patterns in this closely watched northern Taiwan contest.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$1,086Data di fine
28 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent KMT mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds an 83.5% implied probability in the Keelung mayoral market ahead of Taiwan’s November 28, 2026 local elections, while DPP challenger Tung Tzu-wei sits at 7.5%. Traders cite Hsieh’s 2022 victory, survival of a 2024 recall vote, and consistent polling leads—though a late-July survey showed the margin narrowing to roughly 2.5 points with high undecided shares. KMT’s broad fielding of candidates across most races and the absence of major recent scandals or shifts in voter blocs reinforce the current pricing. Resolution hinges on the official vote count, with potential movement possible from late-campaign developments or turnout patterns in this closely watched northern Taiwan contest.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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