**Summit inflation rates following Episode 52’s deflationary tilt, tracked by Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeters at Uēkahuna, currently drive trader sentiment toward an August 8–12 onset for Kīlauea Episode 53 fountaining.** USGS models, updated as of August 7, place the most probable window between August 8 and 12 based on steady positive tilt trends and persistent vent glow indicating resumed magma accumulation beneath Halemaʻumaʻu. The closely matched market probabilities across August 8–12 reflect uncertainty in exact timing, as variable inflation rates and minor seismic shifts can shift the pressure threshold for renewed lava fountaining by a day or two. Upcoming daily tilt and gas emission updates from HVO will likely refine the forecast within this narrow window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuando inizierà l'Episodio 53 di Kīlauea?
Quando inizierà l'Episodio 53 di Kīlauea?
9-10 agosto 38%
11-12 ago 38%
8 agosto o prima 36%
13 agosto o dopo 26%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 set 2026
8 agosto o prima
36%
9-10 agosto
38%
11-12 ago
38%
13 agosto o dopo
26%
9-10 agosto 38%
11-12 ago 38%
8 agosto o prima 36%
13 agosto o dopo 26%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 set 2026
8 agosto o prima
$0 Vol.
36%
9-10 agosto
$0 Vol.
38%
11-12 ago
$20 Vol.
38%
13 agosto o dopo
$0 Vol.
26%
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.**Summit inflation rates following Episode 52’s deflationary tilt, tracked by Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeters at Uēkahuna, currently drive trader sentiment toward an August 8–12 onset for Kīlauea Episode 53 fountaining.** USGS models, updated as of August 7, place the most probable window between August 8 and 12 based on steady positive tilt trends and persistent vent glow indicating resumed magma accumulation beneath Halemaʻumaʻu. The closely matched market probabilities across August 8–12 reflect uncertainty in exact timing, as variable inflation rates and minor seismic shifts can shift the pressure threshold for renewed lava fountaining by a day or two. Upcoming daily tilt and gas emission updates from HVO will likely refine the forecast within this narrow window.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volume
$20Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.**Summit inflation rates following Episode 52’s deflationary tilt, tracked by Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeters at Uēkahuna, currently drive trader sentiment toward an August 8–12 onset for Kīlauea Episode 53 fountaining.** USGS models, updated as of August 7, place the most probable window between August 8 and 12 based on steady positive tilt trends and persistent vent glow indicating resumed magma accumulation beneath Halemaʻumaʻu. The closely matched market probabilities across August 8–12 reflect uncertainty in exact timing, as variable inflation rates and minor seismic shifts can shift the pressure threshold for renewed lava fountaining by a day or two. Upcoming daily tilt and gas emission updates from HVO will likely refine the forecast within this narrow window.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Volume
$20Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Summit inflation rates following Episode 52’s deflationary tilt, tracked by Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeters at Uēkahuna, currently drive trader sentiment toward an August 8–12 onset for Kīlauea Episode 53 fountaining.** USGS models, updated as of August 7, place the most probable window between August 8 and 12 based on steady positive tilt trends and persistent vent glow indicating resumed magma accumulation beneath Halemaʻumaʻu. The closely matched market probabilities across August 8–12 reflect uncertainty in exact timing, as variable inflation rates and minor seismic shifts can shift the pressure threshold for renewed lava fountaining by a day or two. Upcoming daily tilt and gas emission updates from HVO will likely refine the forecast within this narrow window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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