Trader sentiment heavily favors Anthropic at 77.5% implied probability for holding the #3 spot on the LMArena Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6 models dominating #1 (1502 Elo) and #2 (1496), with Meta's freshly launched Muse Spark clinging to #3 at 1495—just one point behind. Meta's April 8 debut of this multimodal large language model sparked a rapid climb, explaining its 16% odds as traders weigh potential regression amid leaderboard volatility from ongoing crowdsourced battles. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview lurks at #4 (1493), but limited upside keeps it at 3.7%; further evaluations or minor updates could solidify Anthropic's positioning in this tight frontier race.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il modello di intelligenza artificiale n. 3 alla fine di aprile? (Controllo stile attivato)
Quale azienda ha il modello di intelligenza artificiale n. 3 alla fine di aprile? (Controllo stile attivato)
Anthropic 78%
Meta 16%
Google 4.0%
OpenAI 2.0%
$54,523 Vol.
$54,523 Vol.

Anthropic
78%

Meta
16%

4%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
1%

Alibaba
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 78%
Meta 16%
Google 4.0%
OpenAI 2.0%
$54,523 Vol.
$54,523 Vol.

Anthropic
78%

Meta
16%

4%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
1%

Alibaba
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment heavily favors Anthropic at 77.5% implied probability for holding the #3 spot on the LMArena Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6 models dominating #1 (1502 Elo) and #2 (1496), with Meta's freshly launched Muse Spark clinging to #3 at 1495—just one point behind. Meta's April 8 debut of this multimodal large language model sparked a rapid climb, explaining its 16% odds as traders weigh potential regression amid leaderboard volatility from ongoing crowdsourced battles. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview lurks at #4 (1493), but limited upside keeps it at 3.7%; further evaluations or minor updates could solidify Anthropic's positioning in this tight frontier race.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
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