Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99% implied probability on pause-pause-pause for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions across the January 27-28, March 17-18, and upcoming April 28-29 meetings, reflecting confirmed rate holds at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range in the prior sessions amid solid economic expansion and stabilizing unemployment. March FOMC minutes highlighted a raised 2026 inflation outlook from war-related oil shocks, yet Chair Powell's recent remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance on transitory energy pressures, bolstering consensus for policy continuity despite March CPI accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year. Realistic challenges include sustained inflation above 3.5% or hotter nonfarm payrolls data ahead of April, potentially prompting hawkish repricing toward hikes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트동결–동결–동결 99.0%
동결–동결–인하 <1%
기타 <1%
$635,301 거래량
$635,301 거래량
2026.04.29
동결–동결–동결
99%
동결–동결–인하
1%
기타
<1%
동결–동결–동결 99.0%
동결–동결–인하 <1%
기타 <1%
$635,301 거래량
$635,301 거래량
2026.04.29
동결–동결–동결
$91,122 거래량
99%
동결–동결–인하
$228,039 거래량
1%
기타
$276,154 거래량
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99% implied probability on pause-pause-pause for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions across the January 27-28, March 17-18, and upcoming April 28-29 meetings, reflecting confirmed rate holds at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range in the prior sessions amid solid economic expansion and stabilizing unemployment. March FOMC minutes highlighted a raised 2026 inflation outlook from war-related oil shocks, yet Chair Powell's recent remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance on transitory energy pressures, bolstering consensus for policy continuity despite March CPI accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year. Realistic challenges include sustained inflation above 3.5% or hotter nonfarm payrolls data ahead of April, potentially prompting hawkish repricing toward hikes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
거래량
$635,301종료일
2026.04.29마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99% implied probability on pause-pause-pause for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions across the January 27-28, March 17-18, and upcoming April 28-29 meetings, reflecting confirmed rate holds at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range in the prior sessions amid solid economic expansion and stabilizing unemployment. March FOMC minutes highlighted a raised 2026 inflation outlook from war-related oil shocks, yet Chair Powell's recent remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance on transitory energy pressures, bolstering consensus for policy continuity despite March CPI accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year. Realistic challenges include sustained inflation above 3.5% or hotter nonfarm payrolls data ahead of April, potentially prompting hawkish repricing toward hikes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
거래량
$635,301종료일
2026.04.29마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99% implied probability on pause-pause-pause for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions across the January 27-28, March 17-18, and upcoming April 28-29 meetings, reflecting confirmed rate holds at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range in the prior sessions amid solid economic expansion and stabilizing unemployment. March FOMC minutes highlighted a raised 2026 inflation outlook from war-related oil shocks, yet Chair Powell's recent remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance on transitory energy pressures, bolstering consensus for policy continuity despite March CPI accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year. Realistic challenges include sustained inflation above 3.5% or hotter nonfarm payrolls data ahead of April, potentially prompting hawkish repricing toward hikes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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