Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 300,000-400,000 deportations in 2026 at 36%, reflecting verified ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations data showing 442,637 removals in FY2025 and a fivefold surge in interior deportations through early 2026, driven by quadrupled arrests, elevenfold street arrests, and expanded detention to 57,000-73,000 beds amid plummeting release rates. February-March dips followed enforcement incidents like Minneapolis, tempering acceleration despite record 225 removal flights in March and 12,000 new ICE hires. Recent April pushes for workplace raids by Trump allies and MAGA groups signal potential upside, but logistical hurdles—court backlogs, funding caps, and sanctuary resistance—anchor expectations below mass-deportation rhetoric, with 400,000-500,000 next at 24.5%.