The record-low Arctic winter sea ice maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15, 2026—tying 2025 as the smallest in the 48-year satellite record per NSIDC—has propelled trader consensus toward a below-4 million square kilometer summer minimum, with <4m sq km at 52% implied probability. This thin ice pack, combined with record-low March volume and an 80% chance of ENSO-neutral transitioning to 61% El Niño odds for May-July per NOAA CPC, heightens melt potential via warmer atmospheric patterns and reduced refreezing. Long-term decline at 12% per decade reinforces positioning, though model ensembles show uncertainty; SIPN Phase 1 outlooks due in May will refine forecasts using spring melt observations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
<4m sq km 52%
4.0-4.2m sq km 15.2%
4.6-4.8m sq km 12%
4.4-4.6m sq km 11.8%
$31,023 거래량
$31,023 거래량
2026.10.01
<4m sq km
52%
4.0-4.2m sq km
15%
4.2-4.4m sq km
12%
4.4-4.6m sq km
12%
4.6-4.8m sq km
12%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
1%
<4m sq km 52%
4.0-4.2m sq km 15.2%
4.6-4.8m sq km 12%
4.4-4.6m sq km 11.8%
$31,023 거래량
$31,023 거래량
2026.10.01
<4m sq km
$23,866 거래량
52%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$2,456 거래량
15%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$786 거래량
12%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$935 거래량
12%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$1,670 거래량
12%
4.8-5m sq km
$605 거래량
2%
5m+ sq km
$705 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The record-low Arctic winter sea ice maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15, 2026—tying 2025 as the smallest in the 48-year satellite record per NSIDC—has propelled trader consensus toward a below-4 million square kilometer summer minimum, with <4m sq km at 52% implied probability. This thin ice pack, combined with record-low March volume and an 80% chance of ENSO-neutral transitioning to 61% El Niño odds for May-July per NOAA CPC, heightens melt potential via warmer atmospheric patterns and reduced refreezing. Long-term decline at 12% per decade reinforces positioning, though model ensembles show uncertainty; SIPN Phase 1 outlooks due in May will refine forecasts using spring melt observations.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
마켓 개설일: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
거래량
$31,023종료일
2026.10.01마켓 개설일
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The record-low Arctic winter sea ice maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15, 2026—tying 2025 as the smallest in the 48-year satellite record per NSIDC—has propelled trader consensus toward a below-4 million square kilometer summer minimum, with <4m sq km at 52% implied probability. This thin ice pack, combined with record-low March volume and an 80% chance of ENSO-neutral transitioning to 61% El Niño odds for May-July per NOAA CPC, heightens melt potential via warmer atmospheric patterns and reduced refreezing. Long-term decline at 12% per decade reinforces positioning, though model ensembles show uncertainty; SIPN Phase 1 outlooks due in May will refine forecasts using spring melt observations.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
거래량
$31,023종료일
2026.10.01마켓 개설일
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The record-low Arctic winter sea ice maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15, 2026—tying 2025 as the smallest in the 48-year satellite record per NSIDC—has propelled trader consensus toward a below-4 million square kilometer summer minimum, with <4m sq km at 52% implied probability. This thin ice pack, combined with record-low March volume and an 80% chance of ENSO-neutral transitioning to 61% El Niño odds for May-July per NOAA CPC, heightens melt potential via warmer atmospheric patterns and reduced refreezing. Long-term decline at 12% per decade reinforces positioning, though model ensembles show uncertainty; SIPN Phase 1 outlooks due in May will refine forecasts using spring melt observations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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