Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic normalizing by April 30, driven by persistent disruptions from the ongoing 2026 crisis, where volumes remain below 10% of pre-February levels per Kpler and LSEG tracking data. Recent U.S. partial blockade of Iranian ports, initiated around April 9, has deterred non-Iranian commercial vessels, with only isolated tankers transiting as of April 14-15 amid reports of reversals and minimal activity—far short of the daily 140-ship norm. Iranian warnings and mutual blockades sustain elevated geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets, with no de-escalation signals or ceasefire enforcement evident in the past week. Key catalysts include potential diplomatic breakthroughs or military escalations before month-end, though traders anticipate prolonged constraints on this vital 20% of global oil flows.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$10,157,694 거래량
$10,157,694 거래량
2026.04.30
예
$10,157,694 거래량
$10,157,694 거래량
2026.04.30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic normalizing by April 30, driven by persistent disruptions from the ongoing 2026 crisis, where volumes remain below 10% of pre-February levels per Kpler and LSEG tracking data. Recent U.S. partial blockade of Iranian ports, initiated around April 9, has deterred non-Iranian commercial vessels, with only isolated tankers transiting as of April 14-15 amid reports of reversals and minimal activity—far short of the daily 140-ship norm. Iranian warnings and mutual blockades sustain elevated geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets, with no de-escalation signals or ceasefire enforcement evident in the past week. Key catalysts include potential diplomatic breakthroughs or military escalations before month-end, though traders anticipate prolonged constraints on this vital 20% of global oil flows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
마켓 개설일: Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
거래량
$10,157,694종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic normalizing by April 30, driven by persistent disruptions from the ongoing 2026 crisis, where volumes remain below 10% of pre-February levels per Kpler and LSEG tracking data. Recent U.S. partial blockade of Iranian ports, initiated around April 9, has deterred non-Iranian commercial vessels, with only isolated tankers transiting as of April 14-15 amid reports of reversals and minimal activity—far short of the daily 140-ship norm. Iranian warnings and mutual blockades sustain elevated geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets, with no de-escalation signals or ceasefire enforcement evident in the past week. Key catalysts include potential diplomatic breakthroughs or military escalations before month-end, though traders anticipate prolonged constraints on this vital 20% of global oil flows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
거래량
$10,158,547종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic normalizing by April 30, driven by persistent disruptions from the ongoing 2026 crisis, where volumes remain below 10% of pre-February levels per Kpler and LSEG tracking data. Recent U.S. partial blockade of Iranian ports, initiated around April 9, has deterred non-Iranian commercial vessels, with only isolated tankers transiting as of April 14-15 amid reports of reversals and minimal activity—far short of the daily 140-ship norm. Iranian warnings and mutual blockades sustain elevated geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets, with no de-escalation signals or ceasefire enforcement evident in the past week. Key catalysts include potential diplomatic breakthroughs or military escalations before month-end, though traders anticipate prolonged constraints on this vital 20% of global oil flows.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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