Trader consensus on a 79.5% "No" probability stems from stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations, deadlocked over uranium enrichment limits, with the US demanding a 20-year pause and Iran offering at most five years amid demands for sanctions relief and enrichment rights recognition. Recent indirect talks in Islamabad, mediated by Pakistan, collapsed after 21 hours without progress on IAEA verification access to war-damaged sites like Isfahan, where stockpiles may be hidden or buried post-2025 strikes. Even with an instant agreement, logistical barriers—restoring monitoring, packaging in Type B casks, and secure transport—exceed the 44 days to May 31, echoing JCPOA precedents routing material via Russia rather than direct US custody. Ceasefire expiry on April 22 adds pressure but no handover signals.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$3,585,079 거래량
$3,585,079 거래량
2026.05.31
예
$3,585,079 거래량
$3,585,079 거래량
2026.05.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on a 79.5% "No" probability stems from stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations, deadlocked over uranium enrichment limits, with the US demanding a 20-year pause and Iran offering at most five years amid demands for sanctions relief and enrichment rights recognition. Recent indirect talks in Islamabad, mediated by Pakistan, collapsed after 21 hours without progress on IAEA verification access to war-damaged sites like Isfahan, where stockpiles may be hidden or buried post-2025 strikes. Even with an instant agreement, logistical barriers—restoring monitoring, packaging in Type B casks, and secure transport—exceed the 44 days to May 31, echoing JCPOA precedents routing material via Russia rather than direct US custody. Ceasefire expiry on April 22 adds pressure but no handover signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
거래량
$3,585,079종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on a 79.5% "No" probability stems from stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations, deadlocked over uranium enrichment limits, with the US demanding a 20-year pause and Iran offering at most five years amid demands for sanctions relief and enrichment rights recognition. Recent indirect talks in Islamabad, mediated by Pakistan, collapsed after 21 hours without progress on IAEA verification access to war-damaged sites like Isfahan, where stockpiles may be hidden or buried post-2025 strikes. Even with an instant agreement, logistical barriers—restoring monitoring, packaging in Type B casks, and secure transport—exceed the 44 days to May 31, echoing JCPOA precedents routing material via Russia rather than direct US custody. Ceasefire expiry on April 22 adds pressure but no handover signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$3,585,379종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a 79.5% "No" probability stems from stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations, deadlocked over uranium enrichment limits, with the US demanding a 20-year pause and Iran offering at most five years amid demands for sanctions relief and enrichment rights recognition. Recent indirect talks in Islamabad, mediated by Pakistan, collapsed after 21 hours without progress on IAEA verification access to war-damaged sites like Isfahan, where stockpiles may be hidden or buried post-2025 strikes. Even with an instant agreement, logistical barriers—restoring monitoring, packaging in Type B casks, and secure transport—exceed the 44 days to May 31, echoing JCPOA precedents routing material via Russia rather than direct US custody. Ceasefire expiry on April 22 adds pressure but no handover signals.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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