Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8 following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, Iran has exploited the pause to reorganize its ballistic missile forces, per April 15 assessments, while issuing threats of direct retaliation against U.S. assets and Gulf infrastructure if the U.S. blockade of its ports and Strait of Hormuz persists. Proxies like Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis continue coordinated drone and missile attacks on Israel, with Gulf states including UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait reporting interceptions as recently as early April. Pakistan-proposed U.S.-Iran talks loom, but traders weigh escalation risks versus de-escalation signals from President Trump's hints at winding down operations before April 30.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$463,743 거래량
2026.04.30
루와이스 정유소
25%
합샨 유전/가공 단지
22%
라스 라판 산업 도시
22%
라스 타누라
19%
쿠라이스 유전
19%
압카이크 원유 처리 시설
14%
알 주르 정유소
13%
가와르 유전
11%
사파니야 유전
10%
레비아탄 가스전
8%
부르즈 할리파
5%
디모나(시몬 페레스 네게브 핵연구소)
2%
$463,743 거래량
루와이스 정유소
$39,648 거래량
25%
합샨 유전/가공 단지
$46,277 거래량
22%
라스 라판 산업 도시
$35,851 거래량
22%
라스 타누라
$37,991 거래량
19%
쿠라이스 유전
$14,786 거래량
19%
압카이크 원유 처리 시설
$38,125 거래량
14%
알 주르 정유소
$30,213 거래량
13%
가와르 유전
$12,229 거래량
11%
사파니야 유전
$11,512 거래량
10%
레비아탄 가스전
$7,662 거래량
8%
부르즈 할리파
$7,981 거래량
5%
디모나(시몬 페레스 네게브 핵연구소)
$78,280 거래량
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8 following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, Iran has exploited the pause to reorganize its ballistic missile forces, per April 15 assessments, while issuing threats of direct retaliation against U.S. assets and Gulf infrastructure if the U.S. blockade of its ports and Strait of Hormuz persists. Proxies like Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis continue coordinated drone and missile attacks on Israel, with Gulf states including UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait reporting interceptions as recently as early April. Pakistan-proposed U.S.-Iran talks loom, but traders weigh escalation risks versus de-escalation signals from President Trump's hints at winding down operations before April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
마켓 개설일: Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
거래량
$463,743종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8 following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, Iran has exploited the pause to reorganize its ballistic missile forces, per April 15 assessments, while issuing threats of direct retaliation against U.S. assets and Gulf infrastructure if the U.S. blockade of its ports and Strait of Hormuz persists. Proxies like Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis continue coordinated drone and missile attacks on Israel, with Gulf states including UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait reporting interceptions as recently as early April. Pakistan-proposed U.S.-Iran talks loom, but traders weigh escalation risks versus de-escalation signals from President Trump's hints at winding down operations before April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
거래량
$463,743종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8 following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, Iran has exploited the pause to reorganize its ballistic missile forces, per April 15 assessments, while issuing threats of direct retaliation against U.S. assets and Gulf infrastructure if the U.S. blockade of its ports and Strait of Hormuz persists. Proxies like Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis continue coordinated drone and missile attacks on Israel, with Gulf states including UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait reporting interceptions as recently as early April. Pakistan-proposed U.S.-Iran talks loom, but traders weigh escalation risks versus de-escalation signals from President Trump's hints at winding down operations before April 30.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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