Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 3.5% federal funds rate (35.5% implied probability) and 3.75% (29.3%) as neck-and-neck leaders for end-2026, signaling tight competition amid hawkish repricing after March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—far above 2.4% prior—fueled by 10.9% energy gains and 21.2% gasoline spike. This tempers expectations for cuts from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, loosely tracking the March FOMC dot plot's 3.4% median despite steady 4.3% unemployment and 2.9% annualized core trends. Key differentiators hinge on inflation persistence versus labor softening; upcoming April 28-29 FOMC (hold priced at 99%) and May CPI release could sway the balance toward fewer or no basis-point reductions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트3.5% 36%
3.75% 29.3%
3.25% 10%
4.0% 6.0%
$6,297,206 거래량
$6,297,206 거래량
2026.12.09
1.0% 이하
1%
1.25
2%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
1%
2.0%
1%
2.25%
1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
2%
3.0%
4%
3.25%
10%
3.5%
36%
3.75%
29%
4.0%
6%
4.25%
1%
≥ 4.5%
3%
3.5% 36%
3.75% 29.3%
3.25% 10%
4.0% 6.0%
$6,297,206 거래량
$6,297,206 거래량
2026.12.09
1.0% 이하
$211,761 거래량
1%
1.25
$111,883 거래량
2%
1.5%
$124,708 거래량
<1%
1.75%
$125,263 거래량
1%
2.0%
$173,946 거래량
1%
2.25%
$63,478 거래량
1%
2.5%
$154,308 거래량
1%
2.75%
$26,196 거래량
2%
3.0%
$443,064 거래량
4%
3.25%
$41,365 거래량
10%
3.5%
$183,041 거래량
36%
3.75%
$497,020 거래량
29%
4.0%
$1,345,239 거래량
6%
4.25%
$406,631 거래량
1%
≥ 4.5%
$2,389,304 거래량
3%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 3.5% federal funds rate (35.5% implied probability) and 3.75% (29.3%) as neck-and-neck leaders for end-2026, signaling tight competition amid hawkish repricing after March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—far above 2.4% prior—fueled by 10.9% energy gains and 21.2% gasoline spike. This tempers expectations for cuts from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, loosely tracking the March FOMC dot plot's 3.4% median despite steady 4.3% unemployment and 2.9% annualized core trends. Key differentiators hinge on inflation persistence versus labor softening; upcoming April 28-29 FOMC (hold priced at 99%) and May CPI release could sway the balance toward fewer or no basis-point reductions.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
마켓 개설일: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
거래량
$6,297,206종료일
2026.12.09마켓 개설일
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 3.5% federal funds rate (35.5% implied probability) and 3.75% (29.3%) as neck-and-neck leaders for end-2026, signaling tight competition amid hawkish repricing after March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—far above 2.4% prior—fueled by 10.9% energy gains and 21.2% gasoline spike. This tempers expectations for cuts from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, loosely tracking the March FOMC dot plot's 3.4% median despite steady 4.3% unemployment and 2.9% annualized core trends. Key differentiators hinge on inflation persistence versus labor softening; upcoming April 28-29 FOMC (hold priced at 99%) and May CPI release could sway the balance toward fewer or no basis-point reductions.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
거래량
$6,297,206종료일
2026.12.09마켓 개설일
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 3.5% federal funds rate (35.5% implied probability) and 3.75% (29.3%) as neck-and-neck leaders for end-2026, signaling tight competition amid hawkish repricing after March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—far above 2.4% prior—fueled by 10.9% energy gains and 21.2% gasoline spike. This tempers expectations for cuts from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, loosely tracking the March FOMC dot plot's 3.4% median despite steady 4.3% unemployment and 2.9% annualized core trends. Key differentiators hinge on inflation persistence versus labor softening; upcoming April 28-29 FOMC (hold priced at 99%) and May CPI release could sway the balance toward fewer or no basis-point reductions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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