Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 as the second-hottest year on record at 51.5% implied probability, with a 36% chance of claiming first, driven by NOAA's March 2026 outlook showing a 98.4% likelihood of a top-5 finish and over 99.9% for top-10 amid persistent warming. March 2026 ranked as the fourth-warmest March globally per Copernicus Climate Change Service, with a 1.48°C anomaly above pre-industrial levels despite lingering La Niña effects, while NOAA forecasts an El Niño emergence by mid-2026 (61% chance May-July) that could amplify second-half temperatures akin to 2023-2024 peaks. Following 2025's third-warmest ranking, this positions 2026 firmly among recent record-breakers, with monthly updates from NOAA and Copernicus as key near-term catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2 52%
1 36%
4 5.0%
3 4.5%
$2,624,347 거래량
$2,624,347 거래량
2026.12.31
1
36%
2
52%
3
4%
4
5%
5
<1%
6위 이하
3%
2 52%
1 36%
4 5.0%
3 4.5%
$2,624,347 거래량
$2,624,347 거래량
2026.12.31
1
$414,566 거래량
36%
2
$289,487 거래량
52%
3
$388,770 거래량
4%
4
$386,834 거래량
5%
5
$698,371 거래량
<1%
6위 이하
$446,318 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 as the second-hottest year on record at 51.5% implied probability, with a 36% chance of claiming first, driven by NOAA's March 2026 outlook showing a 98.4% likelihood of a top-5 finish and over 99.9% for top-10 amid persistent warming. March 2026 ranked as the fourth-warmest March globally per Copernicus Climate Change Service, with a 1.48°C anomaly above pre-industrial levels despite lingering La Niña effects, while NOAA forecasts an El Niño emergence by mid-2026 (61% chance May-July) that could amplify second-half temperatures akin to 2023-2024 peaks. Following 2025's third-warmest ranking, this positions 2026 firmly among recent record-breakers, with monthly updates from NOAA and Copernicus as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
거래량
$2,624,347종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 as the second-hottest year on record at 51.5% implied probability, with a 36% chance of claiming first, driven by NOAA's March 2026 outlook showing a 98.4% likelihood of a top-5 finish and over 99.9% for top-10 amid persistent warming. March 2026 ranked as the fourth-warmest March globally per Copernicus Climate Change Service, with a 1.48°C anomaly above pre-industrial levels despite lingering La Niña effects, while NOAA forecasts an El Niño emergence by mid-2026 (61% chance May-July) that could amplify second-half temperatures akin to 2023-2024 peaks. Following 2025's third-warmest ranking, this positions 2026 firmly among recent record-breakers, with monthly updates from NOAA and Copernicus as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$2,624,347종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 as the second-hottest year on record at 51.5% implied probability, with a 36% chance of claiming first, driven by NOAA's March 2026 outlook showing a 98.4% likelihood of a top-5 finish and over 99.9% for top-10 amid persistent warming. March 2026 ranked as the fourth-warmest March globally per Copernicus Climate Change Service, with a 1.48°C anomaly above pre-industrial levels despite lingering La Niña effects, while NOAA forecasts an El Niño emergence by mid-2026 (61% chance May-July) that could amplify second-half temperatures akin to 2023-2024 peaks. Following 2025's third-warmest ranking, this positions 2026 firmly among recent record-breakers, with monthly updates from NOAA and Copernicus as key near-term catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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